Biotech Values

[dewophile]

MNTA: What can move the stock price in the near term then?

not much imo. most investors have a reasonable range of what sales will be so i too agree that sales figures oct 21 and then nov 1 won't in and of themselves move the stock price much. i think the possibility of a teva enox approval is singularly what is suppressing the stock price, and it will probably take many months of non-approval for investors to start to question the approvability of teva's product. that said, if teva still has not obtained approval by the time earnings come around i do think the stock price will be somewhat higher than it is today.

i think an M118 partnership is unlikely to happen this year since - as shea conveyed - the pharmas in the space are heavily invested in oral Xa inhibitor programs at the time. i guess an FOB partnership can happen soon, but i'm not counting on it

a positive outcome from the copaxone patent case would be significant, but an outcome from the trial is unlikely before early next year

so - i think you need to prepare yourself for the long haul if you're hoping to cash out at a level at or above where MTNA was post-approval

jmo

note: one thing that might move the stock price more materially near-term would be to monetize some of the lovenox profit share/royalty. NVS paying around 200M for 5% of MNTA's lovenox stake should give an annual return on equity of at least 10% to NVS (whether or not another generic is approved) and shore up MNTA's balance sheet