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Anti-establishment tests on tap for Tuesday’s primaries
By Rachel Rose Hartman .. Mon Sep 13


Candidates for New Hampshire Republican Senate nomination speak at a Sept. 9 debate.

The last big batch of 2010 primaries will be held Tuesday. And in a sharply anti-incumbent season, establishment leaders on both sides of the aisle will be anxiously monitoring the results as portents of the main event: Election Day, Nov. 2, when all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 36 of the Senate's 100 seats are up for grabs.

Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Wisconsin and the District of Columbia will all hold primaries Tuesday. And if current trends hold, they will probably present at least a few unpleasant surprises for a national political establishment that's already seen plenty of shocks. In the Senate alone, veteran incumbents Robert Bennett (R-Utah), Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) have all fallen to insurgent challenges this primary season.

Below, we break down the races shaping up as major contests, highlighting the factors that national party leaders will be watching most closely.

[Related: What to watch for Tuesday] .. http://news.yahoo.com/s/dailybeast/20100914/ts_dailybeast/9890_whattowatchintuesdaysprimaries

* Delaware GOP primary for U.S. Senate: Marketing consultant Christine O'Donnell .. http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upshot/20100913/el_yblog_upshot/christine-odonnell-surges-in-delaware-draws-scrutiny .. recently rose to national prominence when the Tea Party Express, Sarah Palin and South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint -- that chamber's most prominent tea party booster -- endorsed her against Rep. Mike Castle, who has served as Delaware's at-large representative since 1993. Castle began his Senate race as the best-known candidate in Delaware, but that's far from a guaranteed asset in this year's primaries. O'Donnell is campaigning as the conservative outsider. Still, it's far from clear whether her outsider profile will be enough to overcome Castle's name recognition, experience and establishment backing in a race that's now effectively deadlocked.

* New Hampshire GOP primary for U.S. Senate: This open-seat contest has attracted a crowded Republican field. Kelly Ayotte, former state attorney general, won the backing of national Republicans long ago, yet she's still been unable to break away from the pack. She has drawn serious competition from Ovide Lamontagne, an attorney, and businessmen Bill Binnie and Jim Bender. Binnie and Bender have largely self-funded their campaigns, which has helped put this primary on track to become the most expensive Senate primary in New Hampshire history. .. [OUCH!] .. http://tiny.cc/6ubq7 .. Lamontagne does not have the financial edge in this race but has drawn major support from DeMint, the Union-Leader newspaper .. http://tiny.cc/2iuvm .. and others. The only thing clear as balloting begins is that the GOP winner will face an establishment candidate on the Democratic side: Rep. Paul Hodes, who ran unopposed for his party's nomination.

* New York Democratic primary for 14th Congressional District: In any other primary cycle, Rep. Carolyn Maloney -- an 18-year House veteran -- would be a virtual shoo-in. But this year, challenger Reshma Saujani, an attorney, has been mounting an aggressive campaign as a Democratic outsider. Saujani has amassed support from Mayor Mike Bloomberg's girlfriend, former state banking superintendent Diana Taylor, .. http://tiny.cc/xzpb9 .. while picking up influential endorsements from the New York Daily News .. http://tiny.cc/zxtc9 .. and from the New York Observer. .. http://tiny.cc/18v3c .. Maloney supporters say Saujani is all rhetoric and no experience -- a question that voters will decide for themselves Tuesday.

* New York Democratic primary for 14th Congressional District: Rep. Charlie Rangel's primary takes place before the longtime lawmaker has a chance to defend himself against 13 ethics charges .. http://tiny.cc/apaj5 .. in an upcoming House trial. Rangel faces tough competition .. http://tiny.cc/47rgp .. from state Rep. Adam Clayton Powell IV -- son of Adam Clayton Powell Jr., the man whom Rangel ousted from the House 40 years ago. Rangel's ethics woes have figured prominently in this campaign -- but paradoxically enough, Rangel may benefit from the crowded field of five challengers, who will probably split the support of the growing contingent of anti-Rangel voters. It also doesn't hurt that Rangel has well outstripped the fundraising efforts .. http://tiny.cc/mrerl .. of all his challengers combined.

(Photo of New Hampshire Senate candidates: AP/Dave Lane)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upshot/20100913/el_yblog_upshot/anti-establisment-tests-on-tap-for-tuesdays-primaries