Biotech Values

[zipjet]

MNTA presentation, my understanding of the statements:

- mL shipped was being used within a day;
- Branded bringing out an AG is self destructive when there is only one generic;
- penetration of the hospital market is similar to outpatient;
- mL remains supply constrained;
- there is room to take additional mL share slowly - read medium term;
- expanding mL supply is a function of managing the entire supply chain;
- Copaxone has been fully characterized;
- the indefiniteness challenge to Copaxone was justified but required a high level of understanding and for that reason was a long shot;
- the indefiniteness challenge served to educate;
- trial on mC 3Q2011 or later.

A few comments:

Wheelers sense of the nature of competition in duopoly pricing of an undifferentiated product that is supply constrained tracks my theoretical statements on the subject.

Wheeler obscured the time line of when the supply constraint will change. That is strategically appropriate, IMO. His statements have also suggested that mL supply will not ramp rapidly beyond the start rate and that it may top out in the low 50's%.

We are no longer depending solely on market theory for the penetration of the mL market segments. Arguments that mL sales would be minimal were wrong.

Is what we learned a "game changer"? Depends on what the game was. I think most of us understood that mL was going to take 40% of the discounted market by revenues. For those who did not understand this, the game did change. Even those of us who were confident of the share mL would get now have a much clearer view of the time frame to achieve it. LOL They got it. We also have a better feel for where mL may top out - call it 50-55%.

At 40% of the discounted US market, mL's annual revenue is ~$960M and can ramp to $1.2B.

ij