That's what I have been assuming would happen once rates started to rise, but there seems to be some chatter that the refi market is drying up instead. This is impressionistic, but it wouldn't surprise me at this point if the MBA numbers are negative again next week. It could be that rates have spiked so quickly that some people who would've made that play didn't have a chance to catch rates low enough--.
I want to emphasize that this impression comes just from a few scattered accounts I've run across here and there, not from any industry reports or data.