The rolling blackout is effecting September production which then will effect October shipments and thus 4th quarter earnings.
From the tone of the email, it sounds like the rolling blackouts will affect almost only Q4 revenue (=40m less in revenue!) while Q3 will remain mostly unaffected (?).
Since we have done 25.6m rev in first half (8.58m in Q1 and 17m in Q2), we may expect 140-25.6= 114.4m (say 114m) in 2nd half. So I am still expecting rev of 54m for Q3 and only 60m for Q4 (vs. previously 100m based on previous 180m guidance). This would give an eps of 0.21E and a ltm eps of 0.46E in Q3 vs. eps= -0.018 and ttm eps= 0.162 in Q2, i.e. a huge sequential increase of 218% in revenue and 183% in ttm eps for Q3. Year over year expected increase of 98% in revenue and 148% in eps in Q3.
For the year, the revised guidance is expected to result in a yoy increase of :
61% for revenue
56% for net income
-5.2% for eps with eps = 0.48E for 2010 vs. 0.51 for 2009 based on a fd share count of 16.64m for 2010 vs. 10.1m for 2009, a 65% increase of shares.
Looking further into 2011, if we can exclude the possibility of further power supply problems, the growth story continues to look phenomenal, esp. with the now reduced 2010 numbers. I think an eps north of $1.50E is in the cards for 2011 (eps growth of over 200% yoy) even without a capacity increase or addition of a second scrap processing plant. So this looks more and more like a 2011+ story.
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