Biotech Values

[zipjet]

That seems on the low side - what are you estimating for Sandoz sales?

Does that mean I lose my coveted hyper-bull status?



In a three way, I assume that SNY launches an AG, so three players with 4 products. We can see that SNY is willing to compete.

So I end up with a degraded L market with sales ranging from $1.4B to $1.8B. I split the market 4 ways, equally between the products, with each competing on pricing to some relative equivalence.

Thus, mL takes $350M to $450M in sales at a 10% royalty. I valued that at 6X, or six years of royalties, figuring the truth is longer but offset by using a discount rate.

ij