Biotech Values

[dewophile]

I'm beginning to think that the sales are Sanofi's to lose

actually i think it is just the opposite- sales are generic to lose unless SNY cuts deals - after all why would anyone pay 15% more for the same product. i'm sure sny was proactive and will maintain exclusivity with some GPOs and PBMs for the outpt setting, but lose others (e.g. zip's hospital network is generic and MEDCO is generic to give you example of a GPO and PBM, repectively, that went generic). seems to me the market will be carved up in such a way that nearly 100% inhospital/network sales will go with either generic or branded depending on contracted pricing, and at the end of the day it will be divided fairly evenly in terms of market share once equilibrium is reached (i.e. sandoz increases capacity and completes negotiations with GPO/PBMs)

that said end user sales at the outset may be less than the 35-40% expected until sandoz does complete these negotiations (zip- after listening to the presentation i am still unclear if 35% end user penetration achieved or 35% shipped to wholesellers)