Biotech Values

[EyeamBill]

MNTA GPO Pricing and P/E Estimate

I echo some, if not all, of Zip's reply. I used the $15-$20 mil quarterly earnings posted elsewhere, which I took to mean EBITDA, and applied a non-accountant's crude estimates of taxes and so forth. I then applied a P/E multiple for the annualized earnings. I came up with about $17.50 for a multiple of 20. You can go from there to determine what a P/E of 30 or 40 might mean.

Is there somebody out there with more accountancy skills than mine who can perform a more solid estimate than this?

I'm a hospital pharmacist and I'm not involved in any GPO negotiations with Sandoz or any other vendor; I'm only a recipient on the e-mail address list for the GPO (HPG in this case). So, I'm in an entirely different layer of the onion than the negotiators.

Now that the disclaimers are out of the way, I offer the early sales of m-enox as compared to something with which we're all more familiar: Automobiles.

For the the 1st-quarter post-approval most sales are going to be Sandoz selling to wholesalers in anticipation of demand, much in the same way GM might sell cars to dealers. So, I don't think the 1Q post-approval will have disappointing sales. The 2Q post-approval will reflect demand from hospitals primarily much in the same way that consumers ultimately drive automobile demand. So, the onus will be on Sandoz to provide better pricing to the GPOs by then, IMHO.

Thanks for reading and posting.

Bill