Biotech Values

[10nisman]

MNTA

Without taking into consideration filling the pipeline, if the run rate is in the range of < $100mil/quarter there will be a huge disappointment come earnings time.

Huge disappointment? Playing your short hand again I see. Why don't you just cover like Wallstarb?

If Sandoz took 50% of a non-discounted U.S. market ($2.7 billion), MNTA would net approximately $120-125 million a quarter or $480-500 million. Throw in a discounted market and MNTA is likely to have a quarterly run-rate between $70-120 million once Sandoz grabs its full market share (40-60%).

Taking the mid-point MNTA would generate $95 million a quarter or $380 million per year. That run-rate would result in generating approximately $320 million in annual pre-tax free cash flow after payment of all expenses. On an after tax basis, MNTA would generate approximately $200 million in annual free cash flow or annual EPS of approximately $4.00/share.

The market is currently valuing MNTA at approximately $800 million ($750 million on a net cash basis and $650 million on a net cash and NOL basis) or about 2.1x estimated annual Lovenox revenue and 4x estimated annual after-tax Lovenox EPS and free cash flow. Assuming a 10x annual after-tax Lovenox EPS and free cash flow is deserving, the current MNTA market price is expecting a quarterly run-rate of approximately $45-50 million. If you attribute some value to M356, M118, etc. ($3-6/per share), the market is pricing in a quarterly run-rate of generic Lovenox sales of $35-40 million.

....lack of analyst support.

Lack of analyst support? What are you talking about? What are you expecting analysts to do - reiterate their outperform and buy recommendations every other week?

BTW JBOG, thank you for your kind messages earlier. I hope you start feeling better soon. Hopefully, you've realized its better to accept your short comings than be resentful towards those with a PhD.

GL,
10nis