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Re: Uglytuco post# 4196

Thursday, 08/26/2010 11:14:56 AM

Thursday, August 26, 2010 11:14:56 AM

Post# of 23105
Ugly,

As you know, I am in those same 3 stocks (IDLM being one of them). All three have or had similar situations, where there was overhead supply held by sellers that were willing so sell at well below the fundamental value (because of a low cost basis and/or some urgency to sell).

In situations like that, you have four choices: (a) walk away to play something wilder, (b) play it for flips within its range, (c) watch it very carefully and buy only when it rises well out of the range it was trading in, or (d) buy now and hold.

Each has pros and cons.

a) good strategy for some folks, but I would put all my eggs in that basket

b) good way to make $$, but you miss the run when it eventually happens, and the moves have to be very predictable

c) great strategy, but you give away the first 30 percent, and you need to be very, very careful on your exit, because you have a 30 percent higher cost basis and don't want to become a bagholder if rally fizzles

d) best returns, but slower

If you tend to like to play strategy (d), then it actually helps to have a large overhead supply pushing the PPS to stupidly low levels. Because that is how you get the best prices. This also, however, entails the greatest need for patience.

Wadi
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