I don't know about that smoking stuff, you have to assume that into earnings, QLGC will rise, maybe as high as $25 or so and then selling the news (and expiry) could get it maybe to the $20 or so area, , $17 seems a far fetch, but nothing is impossible. In May I thought that QLGC would decline "only" to $28, and the rest of the Q (apart of MERQ) have declined some 30% to 50% more than my expectations, so if QLGC were to follow, your $17 might be doable...
Zeev