Greg, Re: Niles expects Intel's unit shipments of microprocessors to rise slightly in the third quarter from the second, while AMD's will decline more than 10 percent. He expects Intel's average selling price for its processors to fall "very slightly" but AMD's to drop up to 20 percent.
A 10% decline in unit volumes for AMD would put microprocessor units at 5.4M. If Intel's volumes rise slightly, they should be in the neighborhood of 32M, which would put AMD market share at about 14.5%. Additionally, a 20% decline in ASPs for AMD puts them at close to $50, now approaching 1/3 of Intel's. Given these numbers, it's hard to imagine how AMD will be able to return to profitable levels. As Niles (once bullish on AMD, now definitely bearish) said, if AMD doesn't do something about their cash burn, it's questionable whether they can still be in business 9 months from now. Next week's conference calls should shed a lot more light on things, hopefully.
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