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Re: tinkershaw post# 101375

Wednesday, 08/11/2010 3:52:30 PM

Wednesday, August 11, 2010 3:52:30 PM

Post# of 252300
That's a real find Tinker and it fits with my experiences of drug pricing. From the article (on my computer the text was partly covered with ads)
<<To concur with Grabowski and Vernon's results, Frank and Salkever (1997) found that brand name prices increased more quickly than in markets without generic entry. Their explanation was that as the price-sensitive consumers switch to generic drugs, demand for the original brand-name drug declines and becomes less sensitive to price. Thus, the price of a brand name drug can theoretically rise more quickly over time than it would have without generic competition.>>

Personally, the only reason I use generics is cost based. If I could easily afford it I wouldn't take generics. Using generics involves a lot of faith (hope?) that penny pinching generic drug makers aren't fudging somewhere in the process, and that generic tablets dissolve well in the GI tract. The market for "brand drugs "in a market with generics isn't big but it must be highly profitable.

Investing in MNTA is very tricky, even more unanswered questions than usual. After getting through the FDA once for our investment to do well we have to await a second FDA decision. I do think it's a bit easier to predict which applications the FDA will likely turn down than to successfully predict the ones it will approve.
Is this enough WOW to justify buying at this price? Maybe, but prudence suggests a relatively small position.

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