Intel Corp (INTC)

[fingolfen]

Nitt, that's a valid arguments. Let's take Intel's cpus for example. Given the distribution from 1.8Ghz to 2.8Ghz how would you allocate the percentage sold for each speed grade ( they have to total to 100% ). The other consideration is that AMD's ASPS are suppressed because they don't own the high-end anymore. Having the performance leadership allows all the manufacturer to pull up the prices of all their chips. For example, the lower-volume Athlon MPs still fetch well over $100 but there are not enough of those to make a dent.

Any word on what the real volumes of the MP actually are? My impression is that they are not a huge commercial success.

For your information the $199 price listed on Pwatch for the 2400+ is the lowest one. There's one for $238 also.

Can you actually buy one though? This could be a simple case of scarcity, there are too few chips to meet demand. Generally high end chips are somewhat supply limited, but if AMD's charging that much for a 2400+, then there is no price/performance benefit for going with AMD.

I think that AMD will price the clawhammer 3400+ at 25% off the 3Ghz P4 which should price the 3400+ at around $350, then subtract some $50 for the OEMS and they'll get around $300. By then they'll have the 2800+ and 3000+ bartons ( hopefully ) which can fetch anywhere from $150 to $250 and they should be able to pull up their ASPS.

Clawhammer in enough volume to matter won't be available until at least Q2 of next year though. By then, I seriously doubt the 3.06GHz P4 will be top dog anymore.

They just have to execute like you say. If they can sell 5 million TBreds @ $50-$75 and 1 million Bartons and Hammers at ~$150, they will do ok.

Wow... what quarter are you targeting that for? Certainly not Q1! I don't see that scenario until at least Q3 of next year at the earliest!