Art, I like your posts and I appreciate having someone with your stock broker background here on the KATX board to gain professional insight from.
You are quite right to point out that we are all making assumptions about what will happen over the next few days and weeks. It's fun to do and it's also a necessary part of investing, but we definitely need to not get too carried away.
It seems to me that this weekend there has been a lot of argument on the board about KAT Exploration. Things are becoming a little heated. Some are saying that we are ready for our next move upwards today or at least sometime this week. Others are saying "we will get our next leg up, but not for a few weeks" and still others (well maybe just one or two others) are saying "it's a scam or at best it's poor management, but the company is going nowhere".
Of course we are all looking at the same information, and someone posted that charts do not lie. Of course they are totally right because the data itself cannot lie, but we fallible humans have to interpret the data, so the data could be accurate but the conclusions drawn from it could be completely wrong. This applies equally to the fundamental DD as it does to the technical analysis. At the end of the day it all comes down to personal opinion, informed by however much information each of us has managed to gain access to. Not all sources of information are equally reliable, and frankly not all opinions can be relied upon to be totally honest, as some will wish to hide their true agendas. This of course is why it is so important to be able to trust one's own judgement.
So anyway... here's my own personal position:
1. Ken Stead (and by extension his team) is honest, diligent and working hard to bring the maximum value to shareholders.
I believe this because I have followed everything that Ken has said and done since January and I have also communicated with him a dozen or so times. I now feel I have a good idea who Ken is, what he stands for and believes and where he plans to take KAT Exploration.
2. The Handcamp property will meet or exceed my expectations.
I believe this partly because of the facts that are known so far - excellent soil and rock sample analysis and very interesting levels and widths of mineralisation in the initials cores - and mostly because of all that is occuring right now - employing more staff, extending the Handcamp property and so on - and reading the excitement in Ken Stead's own words in the recent PRs.
3. The assets owned by KAT Exploration are going to be fantastic
I believe this simply because I have done hours and hours of due diligence on them. It's all there on the KAT Exploration web site, in their press releases, in the iBox, stickies and everyone's posts over the last 8 months or so, and Ken and Jack have been very generous with their time in answering countless questions from myself and others.
4. We will see major announcements regarding Handcamp in the very near future
The time is ripe! All we are waiting upon is the ticker change from BVIG to KATG and the O/S change and then we will be off and running. My belief is that everything else is in place for a major announcement on Handcamp results and that Ken is just waiting (as he is allowed to do) until he has all his ducks in a line before he makes the announcement. Again, this is based upon all the information that is out there that everyone has picked over in the past few weeks. I won;t go over it again here.
5. Following the major Handcamp announcement we will see more major announcements regarding the KAT Exploration assets.
I think we will see a drill programme date for Rusty Ridge and I also think we will get updates for several (if not all) of the other properties. I think that these updates are going to be majorly exciting and if we're lucky it might include some information about the proposed sale of TwiLite to KATG, as well as the NI 43-101 on Cabot and exploration plans for Clifton, Shaylee and Colliers. I believe we might even have an announcement on planms for buying more properties. I believe the Handcamp gold will be used to finance these activities
I'm sure I've missed lots of things out, but the above is pretty much what I am expecting, and from both the fundamentals and the technicals it looks to me like we are ready for our next move upwards. To my mind it is just a question of waiting for the KATG ticker change and O/S increase.
Note that if you do not have the same opinion on Item no.1. as I do then it is very unlikely that you will come to the same conclusions on Items 2. to 5.. Having a good relationship with (or at least feeling comfortable to trust) the management team is very important in a pinksheet stock.
Now, what about the differing opinions -
I totally reject the opinions of some that either KATX is a scam/p&d or whatever. I am 100% certain it is not. I have done my DD on that one over and again and I am as certain of KATX and Ken Stead being legitimate and honest as I can possibly be. The fundamental DD is all out there and Ken is kind enough to reply to individual investors emails. Doing one's own research will prove this to anyone (or anyone who is willing to do the work and be non-judgemental) IMO.
What about the timing? Will it be this week, or are others who are saying "a few weeks time" correct? In truth I do not know. It is relatively easy to predict that something major is going to happen, but far harder to predict precisely when it will happen! It certainly could be this week and to my mind both the technical analysis and the fundamental research would indicate we will be ready this week (we should have that ticker change this week and that may be the only thing we are waiting on now). But if it doesn't happen this week, does it matter? Of course not! I would love to see a big price increase this week, but if I have to wait a week or so more then so be it!
The moral of the story for me is that IMO we all need to calm down and relax a little. The DD is done. We know so much that is positive. Let's not start falling out at this stage - which ever way we cut it we're nearly there!
Art, sorry, you raise a very good question. I don't know the answer but my understanding is that Ken could chose to make a private placement of shares available to one or more individuals/entities for a preset share price, or he could make a "rights issue" which offers additional shares to all existing shareholders at a preset price, which individual shareholders could chose to take up or not as they wished, or he could simply offer a secondary issue of shares to the general public through the market price as set by the MMs. I am comfortable with any of these options since I believe that the results from Handcamp will more than support an increased O/S and I do not think Ken will want to max out the O/S at this stage, partly because of keeping his powder dry for future finance raising, partly because of TwiLite and not least because of his long term plans to move KATG to a full exchange. I do not anticipate Ken increasing KATG's A/S beyone its existing 500m.
I do not think he will choose to call in all existing shares, but I guess he certainly could do and I have no knowledge to base my thoughts on either way. I have bought a few so I hope he doesn't :o)
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