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Alias Born 09/17/2002

Re: bababouie post# 1503

Wednesday, 10/09/2002 3:21:13 PM

Wednesday, October 09, 2002 3:21:13 PM

Post# of 152236
Re:"Anyway, all of AMD's products that I mentioned are not "powerpoint" products but real products that have been demonstrated at numerous venues. The only valid question that you have is whether AMD can manufacture these things. My guess is yes."

I'm not sure how a "demonstration" means a lot. This chip will compete with Pentium on the desktop first if AMD expects to get enough volume to matter. It's not clear the chip will matter on the desktop from a performance standpoint because it is not clear there will be any 64bit code that will make people care. The server space will take time to get a foothold in. Network owners do not take risks... it will take time to get SW in place and then it will take more time to get users to evaluate it completely and then deploy (24 months would be fast). You have to ask yourself, how compelling will Hammer be?

I also believe that despite the press releases regarding support, most companies "supporting" Hammer are really watching their spending and waiting to see if AMD can get it out. The first versions of any SW will not be best in class out of the gates… and some will be beta. There will be less support for Hammer than there is for Athlon... less motherboards, less chipsets, less OEMs offering systems. This economy keeps everyone risk averse... that's why Intel's big support machine adds so much value in the worst of times and AMD has no answer for that.

Nitt




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