Biotech Values

[dewophile]

zgen

Sales seem to be very slow

the slow, incremental gain in market share is not a surprise at this point, is it? and at least the drug should no longer be a drain on the cash from here on out, and may actually net the company a few million a quarter next year

the fact that lamda recruitment is ahead of schedule for hep C (despite the multitude of DAA trials out there), and BMY is going to start trials in hep b i think reinforces the huge tolerability advantage of the drug

personally i thinkt he stock price dropped because top line for atacicept in SLE got pushed back - no surprise here that recruitment is going to be mroe difficult now that GSK/HGSI are expected to launch a drug with similar MOA soon (and no risk of getting a placebo)

i still am long some zgen but i think it is going to be an end of 2011 to early 2012 story when we have better visibiity on how DAAs do without SOC, atacicept data comes in, along with melanoma data. there are several significant shots on goal by then, and i don't see all that much downside risk from here given the strong cash position, a positive cash generator (however modest) in recothrom, and some milestones/royalties expected soon from novo and biomimetic. i don't know what to make of the atopic dermatitis candidate yet, but it could be another dark horse given their track record in striking lucrative deals for early stage compounds