Your analysis seems good enough for a single game scenario.
I'm not aware of any other SNY compounds that MNTA might target, but if SNY does buy Genzyme, you may have the possibility of a repeated game scenario if SNY is worried that MNTA might target enzymes (as an analyst suggested on the CC, although I don't know how much weight to put into that).
In that case, SNY has additional incentive towards more of a scorched earth policy that would both deny MNTA resources and perceived upside to target an SNY compound in the future.
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