Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

MNTA—What do you think are the chances that Teva's [Copaxone] patents will become invalid?

Quite good, IMO. These four posts are on-topic:

#msg-36604466 (two bottommost bullets)
#msg-45789837
#msg-45808367
#msg-45710295

If yes, when do you think this will happen?

A summary judgment by the US District Court is possible but unlikely, IMO. Barring that or some kind of settlement (also unlikely, IMO), the Copaxone patent case will go to a full-fledged trial, where it might take until 2012 for the Court to render a judgment. (If NVS/MNTA think their legal case is exceptionally strong, they could launch “at-risk” at the later of Feb 2011 and whenever they get final FDA approval.)

Do you know if Momenta has another process for making Copaxone than Teva's?

Teva’s process patents should be relatively easy for MNTA to circumvent; I think it’s fair to say that NVS would not have partnered with MNTA on this program if there were significant doubt about this.

Teva’s composition-of-matter patents present a higher hurdle, but #msg-36604466 and #msg-45808367 offer a hint of how NVS/MNTA might get around them.

If nothing else works, NVS/MNTA also have the inequitable conduct angle (#msg-33580867). Regards, Dew