Biotech Values

[mcbio]

EvaluatePharma on anti-coagulant/other markets

[Forecast calls for 2016 Lovenox sales of $2.7B and total worldwide sales of anti-coagulants of ~$14B.]

http://www.evaluatepharma.com/Universal/View.aspx?type=Story&id=218193&isEPVantage=yes

Headline Anti-coagulant products set to flow fastest
Source EP Vantage
Company Roche
Related: Bayer, Celgene, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi-Aventis
Date July 12, 2010

It comes as no surprise to see cancer therapies ranking as the most valuable group of drugs, now and in six years' time, but which other categories are projected to grow strongly?

The analysis below, taken from EvaluatePharma’s World Preview 2016, reveals that anti-diabetics and anti-rheumatics follow behind oncology, actually with marginally higher growth rates expected. Of the largest therapy areas, however, the fastest annual growth rate is forecast for the anti-coagulants, with significant demand anticipated for newer agents such as Bayer’s Xarelto and Boehringer Ingelheim's Pradaxa more than compensating for the decline in Sanofi-Aventis' huge Lovenox franchise.

Top 15 therapy areas

[See Table in Link]

At the top

Oncology has of course been a major area of research for a number of years now. This group includes a number of therapy types but the main categories, accounting for about 90% of sales, are the monoclonoal antibodies and cytostatic agents.

The latter group includes kinase inhibitors, a significantly growing group of cancer medications, such as Novartis’ Gleevec and Roche’s Tarceva. Antibodies meanwhile are forecast to generate $31.6bn in sales alone by 2016, growing 8% a year until then, making them a large therapy area in their own right.

Roche of course dominates here, owning the three biggest antibody products – Avastin, Rituxan and Herceptin – demand for which will consolidate the Swiss group's position as by far the world’s largest oncology player. The company is seen earning $26.4bn from its cancer portfolio by 2016, giving it a third of the market for branded oncology products, a staggering share of such a large market for one company to control. Novartis, in the number two spot, will come nowhere near competing with only a 9% share of the market and $7.2bn of sales by 2016.

Interestingly, Novartis could well see its number two spot challenged by Celgene, which is rapidly building a strong oncology presence, most recently seen with the acquisition of Abraxis Bioscience. Assuming this goes through and Abraxane becomes the product Celgene believes it can be, there will be little difference between the two companies in terms of sales (Celgene buys Abraxis for $2.9bn but insists premium is earned, June 30, 2010).

Top 5 oncology companies

[See Table in Link]

Fast growing

The anti-coagulant space is expected to find its growth from a raft of new products, although with many similar products slated for launch at similar times, it remains to be seen whether all will be successful commercially. Currently dominating this market is Lovenox, a low molecular weight heparin, which loses patent protection in a couple of years, although sales are not expected to completely drop off a cliff; consensus has sales of $2.7bn in 2016, down from $4.2bn last year.

The new entrants include Bayer’s factor Xa inhibitor Xarelto, which has been approved in Europe and should be re-filed in the US towards the end of this year, having been issued with a complete response letter by the FDA in early 2009. Meanwhile Bristol-Myers Squibb has a similar product in Apixaban, also slated for regulatory filings by year end. Daiichi Sankyo has another, DU-176b, in global phase III trials and already filed for approval in Japan. Going after the same market is Boehringer’s Pradaxa, a thrombin inhibitor already approved in Europe.

The success of Lovenox shows there is huge demand and with all of these newer agents fighting to demonstrate improved efficacy or safety, to justify what will be much higher costs, this is likely to be a fiercely competitive segment of the market over the next few years (Bristol-Myers, Pfizer given reason for cheer with apixaban, June 11, 2010).

Others

Amongst the other big areas, the anti-hyperlipidaemics which includes the huge statin class is set to stay high up the rankings, even with the impending loss of mega-blockbuster Lipitor. And another cardiovascular group, the anti-hypertensives, will also remain a huge area despite the loss of patent protection for almost the entire angiotensis class, mosts notably Novartis' Diovan.

And vaccines, until a few years ago a relatively neglected area of research, continues to prove its worth with both high sales and annual growth rates.