Tornado Alley (PROG)

[StephanieVanbryce]

First thoughts: House play

When Robert Gibbs suggested the House is in play in November, he was only stating the obvious… Our four reasons why the GOP could win back the House… And four other reasons why it might not… The Obama White House’s communications problem… Obama meets with the Dominican Republic’s Fernandez at 2:10 pm ET… Is Sarah Palin the 2012 version of Rudy Giuliani?... Previewing tomorrow’s run-offs in Alabama… Vitter gets a primary challenger… And our first glimpse at the 2012 presidential calendar.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg

*** House play: White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs apparently made the biggest political news over the weekend, when he suggested on “Meet the Press” that Republicans could win back the House in the fall. “I think there's no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control… This will depend on strong campaigns by Democrats. And again, I think we've got to take the issues to them.” Gibbs, though, was just stating the obvious. (Imagine if Gibbs had said the GOP did NOT have a chance; the chattering class would have criticized him for being in a bubble or being delusional.) The facts are the facts: The Cook Political Report identifies 64 Democratic-held seats as either “Lean” or “Toss-up” races, and Republicans would need to win a majority of them (39) to win control of the House. Indeed, there are four reasons why the House is up for grabs:

1) according to history, the GOP stands to pick up seats;

2) Republicans enjoy a significant enthusiasm advantage;

3) Democrats are losing the independent vote; and

4) much of the House battleground will play in white/rural districts, where Obama isn’t performing well.

*** The GOP’s advantages and disadvantages: But we also can list another four reasons why the GOP won’t win back the House:

1) Unlike in ’94, the Republican Party has a fav/unfav score that's no better (and sometimes event worse) than the Dem Party’s;

2) Unlike in ’94, the GOP isn’t necessarily running on new ideas or even with many new faces;

3) the National Republican Congressional Committee has a HUGE financial disadvantage compared with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and the RNC’s political/fundraising troubles won’t be able to make up the difference; and

4) winning 39 seats is a tall order. After all, when Democrats won back the House in 2006 -- during the height of violence in Iraq and after Hurricane Katrina -- they picked up 30 House seats. The GOP will need almost 10 more than that.

One thing that's truly amazing about this cycle, historically: The fact we're headed for a third-straight cycle where more than 20 seats change hands.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2010/07/12/4661276-first-thoughts-house-play