Login,
I think that if the Commons are in the money, then there is very little reason to cancel the LTWs. I think the whole premise of canceling the LTWs is predicated upon the notion that the WAMUQ is worthless (according to the submitted PORs).
Thus, in the event that WAMUQ >= 0.01, then we are entitled to X amount of shares on the trigger date.
You brought up an interesting point, which is what if Judge Block releases his update next week with the $63 Million part of it (or not). Then, assuming that payment is made to the custodians of the litigation (i.e. JPM), I think we have an official trigger event under the warrant agreement.
However, given the BK proceedings, they'll probably argue for a stay in paying out the LTW award until after a POR is finalized.
If they don't, then technically, we could be issued WAMUQ stock. However, issuing $400 M+ in WAMUQ stock would heavily dilute the current market for WAMUQ shares. The current total market cap for WAMUQ is only a few 100 M right now.
Of course, this is pure speculation and, most likely, moot. I'm betting that, if the official trigger event occurs, then there will be a motion for a stay by the Debtor's council until the adversary proceedings with Broadbill are finalized.
Best,
Jared