Merck already got one thing wrong...At their Analyst Day, they inferred the second interim would lead to them filing for an NDA.
MRK said a filing could ensue if the data passed the interim analysis—they did not say they actually expected to submit an NDA based on the interim data.
Why are you misrepresenting what MRK said? It was utterly routine, but you’re trying to make it sound like some kind of misjudgment.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”