Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[limtex]

ZH -

1. It was incipient.

2. The Fed was lowering interest rates to the lowest point in nearly a century.

3. Oil was below $30brl.

4. We had just had the effect of 9-11 together with a severe correction that started in March 2000.

5. European economies were not badly hit.

6. Russia and China economies were happily expanding without talk of the need to hold them back.

7. Even if it wasn't fall inot a depression we all remember earnings seasons two years ago the earnings were dire.

8. Fiscal and monetary stimulii were available and were deployed. I am not sure they are so readily available today.

9. Confidence. The most important factor in the market and in the economy is confidence. A collpase below 10k never mind one to the depths of 8k would in my view deal a massive blow to business confidence here and probably world wide. With no apparent end to the market malaise it is not clear to me what measures would turn it around at that stage.

10. It is also clear that in such circumstances OPEC would take measures to reduce production inorder to maintain prices. China and India would find that their economies were suffering and that would not be helpful. China is working very well so long as it offers increasing relative prosperity to its population. Were that process to be interfered with I do not think it would be helpful to stability. Same sort of thing with India.

Just a few of my thoughts. And I haven't mentioned a material increase in unemployment and its effect on the budget deficit.

L