<<isn't it true that we recognize in others the faults we don't see in ourselves?
All too true, I'm afraid, much to the never-ending annoyance of people as judgemental as myself <gggg>
Never found much resolution in finding the faults of others. That's easy. What isn't so easy is this, which I think we can all take to the bank: It takes one to know one.
<< Do you really think this is the time to begin a long term portfolio? >>
Yes. You've already started working on your long-term portfolio with your move into income securities. A wise move, I'd say.
But, where to from there?
IMHO, there is no hurry at all. Opportunities appear every day, and will continue. I would encourage you to think very long and hard about how much volatility you can withstand. And particularly, to develop first and foremost a long term diversified portfolio that you won't touch, if you don't already have one. From there, determine how much you can comfortably allocate to short-term trading.
Before embarking on trading I would also encourage you to clearly determine---and write down---your basic rules for capital preservation and limitation of losses and downside risk management. This is not nearly as simple as it seems, and IMHO requires much reading, research, calculating, and thought. And, it will vary somewhat among different individuals because risk tolerance will vary, as will greed/fear levels, and so forth.
From there, you can then delve into trading specifics, and formulate strategies and rules---again, written down. The next step is paper trading. Then, trading with limited real money. And then, constant re-evaluation and assessment as to what worked and why, and what didn't work and why, and how to improve on both your mistakes and your successes and learn from them.
All this will take a lot of time, but I think you may find it is time well spent, and hopefully very enjoyable.
<< Don't you think we still have a LOT of downside? >>
Yes, although I think the $COMPX in particular has been attempting for a couple of weeks to form a short-term bottom. A relief/countertrend rally is overdue, IMHO, and so will likely be fairly strong. But I would agree with you, the general trend is down. I don't expect to see a final bottom in the $COMPX this side of 2000. I am not sure when that will be, but I suspect it is 6 months away at least, possibly a year.
That should not, IMHO, deter you or anyone else from working on a long-term portfolio. However, it may well mean that you would want to use dollar cost averaging. That is something I do like clockwork. I have money flowing into things several times a month, automatically. So, even if the market continues to tank, that simply means that the cheaper things get, the more I am buying (and the more expensive things get, the less I am buying). And eventually, that will pay off very handsomely.
JMVHO.......
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