Buy-Signals, Sell-Signals and da-Boyz, Oh My, LOL!?
The Buy-Signal issued on 10Jun is still in control, especially since we've had two additional buy-signals issed since 10Jun, BUT, we got a Sell-Signal at the Close on Monday 21Jun!
The buy-signal issued on 15Jun was confirmed on 16Jun and the negate number, 46.13, has NOT been violated on a CLOSE-ing basis so we continue to look upward!
Da-Boyz had our attention after CLOSE-ing above the R2(46.68) AND the long-term break-out/break-down level of 46.64!! We back-tested the R1(46.68), 17Jun and it held, BUT, we could NOT even get up to the R3(47.79) yesterday and we NOW look for more clues as to how low we go on this back-test, the R1(45.57) seems like Rock-Solid support if this upness is for real!?
The NEW Sell-Signal on 21Jun has generated a negate number of 47.53 but based on today's 4cast it may very well get negated on Wednesday or the FED announcement day!?
As expected the S&P500 tagged the R1(1130.03) or 2.5% up mark-r Monday and we now look for a back-testing the YTD OE Pivot, 1102.47? That said, all forward looking stuff suggest we tag the R2(1157.59), and may even have a Serious Break-Out at that level that'll make a run for the R3(1185.16), into earnings season!?
In summary, ALL data points to a NEW YTD High being tagged on this up move and we expect 46.68 to HOLD on a CLOSE-ing basis going forward for the Q's with the R1(45.57) as a possible LOW for the pull-back!?
4cast says, MORE UP!??
Date Open High Low Close
18-Jun 47.06 47.34 46.86 47.00
21-Jun 47.60 47.68 46.33 46.60
4cast
22-Jun 46.36 47.24 46.28 46.84
Buy-Signals:
The Buy-Signal from 05Feb, and the five buy-signals that followed, did NOT get negated until 27Apr! Since then we've had six Buy-Signals and ALL six have been negated!
No, Date, Negate #
1) 05Feb, 42.44
2) 11Feb, 43.12
3) 12Feb, 43.21
4) 25Feb, 44.04
5) 22Mar, 47.32
6) 22Apr, 49.68 (Negated 27Apr)
7) 29Apr, 49.60 (Negated 30Apr)
8) 06May, 45.99 (Negated 07May)
9) 12May, 48.01 (Negated 13May)
10)21May, 44.24 (confirmed 24May)
11)25May, 44.14 Not Confrimed
12)27May, 45.30 (Negated)
13)02Jun, 45.67 (negated 04Jun)
14)10Jun, 44.51 (confirmed 11Jun)
15)11Jun, 44.93 (confirmed 14Jun)
16)15Jun, 46.13 (confirmed 16Jun)
Sell-Signals:
Sell-Signals have definitely dominated the scene since 11Mar and we suspect they'll continute to win out over buy-signals indefitely going forward?
NO, Date, Negate #
1) 11Mar, 48.30
2) 12Mar, 48.31
3) 16Mar, 48.50
4) 18Mar, 48.79
5) 22Mar, 48.88
6) 23Mar, 49.22
7) 25Mar, 48.91
8) 29Mar, 49.19 (Negated 13Apr with a close above!)
9) 14Apr, 50.91 (confirmed with an additional Sell-Signal 15Apr)
10)15Apr, 51.13 (confirmed on 16Apr)
11)27Apr, 50.34 (confirmed on 28Apr)
12)30Apr, 50.22 (confirmed on 03May)
13)04May, 49.40 (confirmed 05May)
14)07May, 46.32 (Negated 10May)
15)13May, 48.81 (confirmed 14May)
16)18May, 47.36 (confirmed 19May)
17)20May, 45.24 (confirmed 21May, negated 27May)
18)01Jun, 46.14 (negated 02Jun)
19)04Jun, 45.99
20)07Jun, 45.16 (confirmed 08Jun)
21)09Jun, 44.70 (negated 10Jun)
22)21Jun, 47.53
Last but defintely NOT Least is the OEPM S/R lines of meaning!
53.35 20.00% R8
52.24 17.50% R7
51.13 15.00% R6
50.02 12.50% R5 (Serious resistance as of 30Apr)
48.91 10.00% R4 (violated 04May, look to the R3 for guidance now)
47.79 7.50% R3 (violated 14May, hasn't been seen since)
46.68 5.00% R2 (violated 18May on a close-ing basis and back-tested 19May)
45.57 2.50% R1 (violated 20May and NOW Serious resistance)
44.46 0.00% YTD OE Pivot (Once thought to be the FINAL Discount wave target, close at 44.35 on 20May and another violation will Open the FLOOD gates to start vilating the Support levels!!??)
43.35 -2.50% S1
42.24 -5.00% S2
41.13 -7.50% S3
40.01 -10.00% S4
38.90 -12.50% S5
37.79 -15.00% S6
36.68 -17.50% S7
35.57 -20.00% S8
