The only problem I see with those projections is this.
There are some things you really can't replace a desktop PC with. Widescreen gaming is one of them. Media storage is another. Other, less pure, applications are there as well.
- The fact is, today's PCs have outrageous amounts of storage space that is simply not economically possible with a tablet PC. Solid State Disks (the kind Smartphones and Tablets use) are extremely expensive. To get the same kind of storage on a Solid State Drive as a regular hard drive (the kind I promise is in your current desktop), you will need to spend more than 20x as much.
This is the cost of 2 drives with the same storage capacity. One is Solid State, the other is Hard Disk.
The equivalent amount of space for a SS Drive is more than 20 times the cost of a standard drive. This is years after solid-state's entry. So I don't see the ratios getting much better anytime soon.
- Most games people play on PCs cannot be played on a tablet. There is no way around this. First person shooters (the most popular type of PC or console game) would be impossible to play effectively with a touch screen. You have to be able to simultaneously control your character's movements and view which, by the very nature of it, requires 2 radically different inputs.
Even if you could, there is no way to pack the necessary hardware to run them effectively into a tablet PC. The video card necessary to run a game like Crysis alone is larger than the tablet. The kicker is, as the technology gets smaller (Nowadays, the transistors on a microchip can only be seen with an electron microscope), the cards don't. The graphics companies simply pack more hardware into them, because the game developers demand higher performance.
Bear in mind, this is coming from someone who would LOVE to not have to sit at my desk while playing games. But a tablet PC could never give me the view I need (widescreen), performance I expect and control I demand.
- Then there's the media buff. These guys have every movie ever made in digital format, ready to play in perfect 1080p widescreen at a moment's notice. They need absurd amounts of space. Space you wouldn't think anyone on earth would need. I have a friend who purchased his third 1000 gigabyte hard drive because he filled up the first two. I have to say, his setup at his house is amazing. Due more to his own efforts than anything, his living room is better than a movie theater with every movie ever made.
These are segments of the electronics market which a tablet PC cannot satisfy. Now I'm not saying tablets won't become very popular, but I don't think for even one moment they'll cut the desktop market by 50%.
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