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Re: TheTrade post# 29708

Saturday, 06/19/2010 10:22:27 AM

Saturday, June 19, 2010 10:22:27 AM

Post# of 44027
I would be ecstatic with .02.

My 5K investment will be worth >150K then, and I will take some of it off the table, make a handsome profit, and what is left becomes a "zero-cost-basis" bet on future gains.

But that is not happening tomorrow, or even likely this year. I am in no rush.

When it hits .005, I can cash out 1.5M shares to cover my basis, take a small profit, and wait for the next jump to take more. That could happen in the next few months.

Snap into reality, what are the chances you win the lottery?



It is a bit different from the lottery, in that the odds may be "astronomical" that it will make me an instant millionaire, but the odds are in my favor that I can make money if I play it right, and perhaps make a lot of money, relative to other places to park your $$.

But 5K spent on lottery tickets does not change the odds from "astronomical" in any statistically meaningful way; it is 5K thrown down the drain, from a statistical perspective. This is what folks (like my dad) who make that argument do not understand. Playing the lottery is foolish.

Yes, playing the pennies is a form of gambling. But with careful study of the risks and potentials, it is less crazy a gamble than lottery tickets or playing roulette, in which the odds are determined purely by random chance and are always stacked heavily in favor of the house.

Putting a small fraction of my investment $$ into a gamble like this makes sense to me, as someone who has never enjoyed gambling per se. But most of my investment $$ is in much safer sorts of investments, that won't make me rich next year, but will let me retire in comfort one day.


"If the present Congress errs in too much talking, how can it be otherwise in a body to which the people send one hundred and fifty lawyers, whose trade it is to question everything, yield nothing, and talk by the hour?"
—Thomas Jefferson

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