Biotech Values

[jessellivermore]

Thnx for the Barrons article..

As always I value your opinions and judgement. In this case I do not buy off on what Allergan is putting out. The "Botox" market is fairly mature and my observation is it was just about the only thing in my practice that did not fall off during this economic meltdown. I do not believe the market is growing 11% per year and even if it is the entry of competitors, ie the end of the monopoly, is going to hurt AGN bigtime.

Botox is to cosmeceuticals as Lipitor is to PFE. Right now even though you could not pry this info out of AGN with a waterboard, the profit margin on Botox has to be staggering. The competion will not only hurt AGN, a company that not all of us plastic surgeons like anyway, by outmarketing them, but by the very real problem of price wars. These companies sell to the physicians, not to individual patients. Price cuts go right to the doctors' bottom lines. Since the products are essentially equivalent there is no ethical issue.

AGN is losing market share in the breast implant business. I place more stock in their competitors statements than theirs.

Re Migraines, I do believe treatment of headaches and assorted causalgias will be a very important market for these drugs.

Best wishes....Too bad about the Celtics

Respectfully ...":>) JL