watching it now ... ;).. no score ... hard to have a favorite as I want the home team to win BUT I also want Mexico to win ... .. ;)))
Mexico
The CONCACAF (North America, Central America and Caribbean) zone is pretty much organized to ensure the qualification of the United States and Mexico. Nonetheless, the Mexicans managed to make it hard on themselves. All they had to do to qualify for the final qualification group was to finish first or second in a four-team group in the previous round. As usual, they won all three of their home games, but on the road they melted, losing to Jamaica and Honduras and tying Canada. Honduras won the group, while Mexico tied for points with Jamaica and advanced only due to a better goal difference. It was not pretty.
The final round consisted of six teams, with the top three going to the World Cup. Once again, Mexico won all of their home games, but this time managed to win one road game, beating Costa Rica 3-0. All this was good enough to earn Mexico second place in the group, and they are back in the World Cup for the fifth straight time. In each of the last four World Cups, Mexico has advanced out of pool play, only to be eliminated in the round of 16.
I give the Mexicans credit for tackling their road game problem head-on. In the three weeks leading up to this year’s World Cup, Mexico scheduled road matches against three of the strongest teams in Europe. They lost to England 3-1 and to the Netherlands 2-1, but then beat Italy 2-1. Whatever one thinks of these results, Mexico will arrive in South Africa better prepared than most other teams.
Still, this could be a rough draw for the Mexicans. It’s never easy playing the host country in the opening match of the World Cup. Mexican teams have played France only six times in the last 80 years, and have never won.
South Africa
This brings us to South Africa. It’s hard not to root for a home team that is also an underdog. Unfortunately, there is nothing in South Africa’s recent performances to suggest that they will advance out of group play. Although the South Africans qualified automatically, they had to compete in the African qualifying tournament in 2008 anyway because it also served as the qualifying tournament for the African Championships. South Africa performed so poorly that they failed to even make it out of the initial qualifying round, losing twice to Nigeria and once to Sierra Leone.
Last year, as practice for the World Cup, South Africa hosted the Confederations Cup. They defeated Poland and New Zealand and tied Iraq, but lost twice to Spain and once to Brazil. Still, these were noble losses to two of the best teams in the world, and the experience seemed to make up for the previous year’s debacle.
Since then, however…well, let’s just look at their home matches. They lost 3-1 to Serbia, beat Madagascar, tied Japan and Jamaica, beat Zimbabwe, tied Namibia and North Korea, finally beat Jamaica and then Thailand, tied Bulgaria and beat Guatemala and Denmark. Does a team that couldn’t beat Namibia at home seem like one that can defeat Mexico, Uruguay and France? At least they are exciting to watch, even if they are unprofessionally sloppy. And they will have tens of thousands of enthusiastic fans cheering them on.
There will be great pressure on the South African team on June 11 when they face Mexico because never in World Cup history has a host nation lost its opening match.
Favorites: This is probably the most difficult group to predict, but unless France collapses like they did in the 2002 World Cup or the 2008 European Championship, I go with France and Mexico.
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