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Saturday, June 05, 2010 10:37:02 PM
Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (6/5/10)
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_June_5_10.htm
Obviously the S&P 500 has a key support area at 1041 (black line) which was the late May low. If it breaks below 1041 then the next support area would be at 1009 (red line) which is the 38.2% Retrace from the March 2009 low of 667 to the April 2010 high of 1220. Meanwhile a drop below 1009 would likely lead to a deeper correction back to the 50% Retrace of 944 (blue line).
If the market is going to have any additional weakness it will likely be from now through the Fall. Historically the year before a Presidential Election Year has been favorable for the market going back to 1942 especially in the November through August time period as shown in the table below.
The Average Return has been 20.5% for the last 17 occurrences going back to 1942. The smallest Return was 5.7% in 1947 while the largest Return was 41.8% in 1987 which by the way preceded the October 1987 crash.
http://www.amateur-investor.net/Weekend_Market_Analysis_June_5_10.htm
Obviously the S&P 500 has a key support area at 1041 (black line) which was the late May low. If it breaks below 1041 then the next support area would be at 1009 (red line) which is the 38.2% Retrace from the March 2009 low of 667 to the April 2010 high of 1220. Meanwhile a drop below 1009 would likely lead to a deeper correction back to the 50% Retrace of 944 (blue line).
If the market is going to have any additional weakness it will likely be from now through the Fall. Historically the year before a Presidential Election Year has been favorable for the market going back to 1942 especially in the November through August time period as shown in the table below.
The Average Return has been 20.5% for the last 17 occurrences going back to 1942. The smallest Return was 5.7% in 1947 while the largest Return was 41.8% in 1987 which by the way preceded the October 1987 crash.
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Dow Performance prior to a Presidential Election Year since 1942
Holding Period (October Close to August Close)
Date Monthly Closing Date Monthly Closing % Return
Price Price
Oct-1942 114.10 Aug-1943 136.60 19.7
Oct-1946 169.20 Aug-1947 178.90 5.7
Oct-1950 225.00 Aug-1951 270.30 20.1
Oct-1954 352.10 Aug-1955 468.20 33.0
Oct-1958 543.20 Aug-1959 664.60 22.3
Oct-1962 589.90 Aug-1963 729.30 23.6
Oct-1966 807.10 Aug-1967 901.30 11.7
Oct-1970 755.60 Aug-1971 898.10 18.9
Oct-1974 665.50 Aug-1975 835.30 25.5
Oct-1978 792.50 Aug-1979 887.60 12.0
Oct-1982 991.70 Aug-1983 1216.20 22.6
Oct-1986 1,877.70 Aug-1987 2663.00 41.8
Oct-1990 2,442.30 Aug-1991 3043.60 24.6
Oct-1994 3,908.10 Aug-1995 4610.60 18.0
Oct-1998 8,592.10 Aug-1999 10829.30 26.0
Oct-2002 8,397.03 Aug-2003 9415.82 12.1
Oct-2006 12,080.73 Aug-2007 13357.74 10.6
Oct-2010 ? Aug-2011 ? ?
Avg Return 20.5
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