Buy-Signals, Sell-Signals and da-Boyz, Oh My, LOL!?
The NEW Buy-Signal on 02Jun was confirmed 03Jun and the new negate number of 45.67 is now a full 2.0% below yesterday's closing price!
In addition, the R1(45.57), which should NOW be support, is now standing toe-to-toe with the negate number as they defend any attempt to Negate the Buy-Signal!?
As suggested yesterday we DID re-visit the R2(46.68), and the 09Mar breakout level of 46.55 which had been support from 09Mar until 07May when we closed at 45.41? Prices quickly rebounded and shot up to 48.79 by 13May but have since fallen back below the R2(46.68), and the previous support of 46.55 back on 18May! Obviously we MUST breach said 46.55/46.68 level and CLOSE above to have ANY chance of finding a ST bottom!?
That said, VISIT-ing and STAY-ing for awhile is NOT the same, hence, we MUST close higher today to confirm the Upward bias!!!!
Our stuff says it's NOT gonna happen and we can look to the S&P500 1102.47 level as a good confirming indicator in regard to whether the ST Bottom has been posted, or NOT!?
It probably goes without saying that a violation of the YTD Pivot,44.46, will set in stage a decline of which NO Long play-r is gonna be able to handle, hence, we can NOT expect such a violation since da-Boyz probably do NOT want to cause a 1929 like PANIC Sell wave, or do they!?
We did kinda expect prices to FIRM yesterday in front of the jobs numbers and we ended the day yesterday with a Net Neutral bias in anticipation of the 46.55/68 level failing or being taken out??
In summary, da-Boyz have REALLY done it dis-TIME as they even have US second guessing our system signals and we DO NOT LIKE IT!!
Boyz, we appologize for the CAPE pulling episode and promise to NOT SPIT into the WIND anytime SOON so could you please go a bit easier on us for the remainder of the OE period, or NOT, LOL!
Buy-Signals:
The Buy-Signal from 05Feb, and the five buy-signals that followed, did NOT get negated until 27Apr! Since then we've had six Buy-Signals and ALL six have been negated!
No, Date, Negate #
1) 05Feb, 42.44
2) 11Feb, 43.12
3) 12Feb, 43.21
4) 25Feb, 44.04
5) 22Mar, 47.32
6) 22Apr, 49.68 (Negated 27Apr)
7) 29Apr, 49.60 (Negated 30Apr)
8) 06May, 45.99 (Negated 07May)
9) 12May, 48.01 (Negated 13May)
10)21May, 44.24 (confirmed 24May)
11)25May, 44.14 Not Confrimed
12)27May, 45.30 (Negated)
13)02Jun, 45.67 (confirmed 03Jun)
Sell-Signals:
Sell-Signals have definitely dominated the scene since 11Mar and we suspect they'll continute to win out over buy-signals indefitely going forward?
NO, Date, Negate #
1) 11Mar, 48.30
2) 12Mar, 48.31
3) 16Mar, 48.50
4) 18Mar, 48.79
5) 22Mar, 48.88
6) 23Mar, 49.22
7) 25Mar, 48.91
8) 29Mar, 49.19 (Negated 13Apr with a close above!)
9) 14Apr, 50.91 (confirmed with an additional Sell-Signal 15Apr)
10)15Apr, 51.13 (confirmed on 16Apr)
11)27Apr, 50.34 (confirmed on 28Apr)
12)30Apr, 50.22 (confirmed on 03May)
13)04May, 49.40 (confirmed 05May)
14)07May, 46.32 (Negated 10May)
15)13May, 48.81 (confirmed 14May)
16)18May, 47.36 (confirmed 19May)
17)20May, 45.24 (confirmed 21May, negated 27May)
18)01Jun, 46.14 (negated 02Jun)
Last but defintely NOT Least is the OEPM S/R lines of meaning!
53.35 20.00% R8
52.24 17.50% R7
51.13 15.00% R6
50.02 12.50% R5 (Serious resistance as of 30Apr)
48.91 10.00% R4 (violated 04May, look to the R3 for guidance now)
47.79 7.50% R3 (violated 14May, hasn't been seen since)
46.68 5.00% R2 (violated 18May on a close-ing basis and back-tested 19May)
45.57 2.50% R1 (violated 20May and NOW Serious resistance)
44.46 0.00% YTD OE Pivot (Once thought to be the FINAL Discount wave target, close at 44.35 on 20May and another violation will Open the FLOOD gates to start vilating the Support levels!!??)
43.35 -2.50% S1
42.24 -5.00% S2
41.13 -7.50% S3
40.01 -10.00% S4
38.90 -12.50% S5
37.79 -15.00% S6
36.68 -17.50% S7
35.57 -20.00% S8
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