AI
Wednesday, January 12, 2005 10:38:59 AM
Russia's gas dreams
Russia has been mulling an ambitious $6 billion project to supply Siberian gas directly to Europe. A 1,200-kilometer underwater section of the pipeline with annual capacity around 19bcm would pass through international waters and link Russia's Vyborg with German shores.
This pipeline would give Putin who is being blocked by Bush a good option and chance of getting gas to Europe.
One of the major reasons the New World Order strategists were determined to put their man, Yushchenko, in control of Ukraine was to insure that Ukraine becomes part of NATO, now a military alliance with an offensive military doctrine used by the United States for its grandiose dreams of global domination.
#msg-4646886
#msg-4674009
An additional factor is the strategic significance of Ukraine. Eighty percent of Russian gas and oil exports to Europe—its most important source of foreign exchange—flows through Ukrainian pipelines. The main base of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Sebastopol, is also situated on Ukrainian national territory.
“It would not take a war to greatly damage Russian interests, simply a change in Ukraine’s geopolitical orientation. A Westernised Ukraine would not so much be a dagger poised at the heart of Russia as it would be a jackhammer in constant operation,” according to Stratfor. A possible consequence, according to the news service, is a more aggressive foreign policy on the part of Russia as well as powerful domestic shocks in the course of which “millions of people could die.”
#msg-4921554
"The U.S. strategy toward Russia is aimed at weakening its international position and ousting it from strategically important regions of the world, above all, the Caspian region, the Transcaucasus and Central Asia."
The U.S.--and specifically the Clinton White House--was determined to oppose any "north/south" pipelines. The White House adopted a plan, cooked up by long-time ruling class strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski, to create an "east-west" pipe which would bypass both Russia and Iran.
The U.S. intends to strip Russia of control over this oil. And the U.S. wants the Caspian oilfields to be completely independent of the Persian Gulf--to diminish the importance of Persian Gulf states in the world economy.
#msg-3775550
Russia's gas dreams
By Sergei Blagov
Jan 13, 2005
MOSCOW - As part of Russia's all-around energy game, the Kremlin has pledged to boost natural-gas supplies to Turkey, and possibly to Israel as well. But despite its ambitious vision of tapping gas export markets in the Mediterranean, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, Moscow still struggles to sustain its traditional influence in its own Eurasian back yard.
Russia will increase natural-gas supplies to Turkey, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Tuesday, after talks with visiting Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Russian companies would join construction of Turkish distribution facilities, said Putin, adding that negotiations are on over joint liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and Russian gas supplies to third countries via Turkey.
Russian and Turkish officials have reportedly discussed the possibility of extending the Blue Stream pipeline, which runs from Russia to Turkey via the Black Sea, to Israel. Last year, Gazprom chief executive officer Alexei Miller traveled to Israel for talks on natural-gas exports via a Russian pipeline to Turkey. Miller met Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who reportedly indicated Israel's interest in long-term gas-supply agreements with the Russian gas monopoly. The Blue Stream pipeline carried some 46 billion cubic feet (1.3 billion cubic meters) of Russian natural gas to Turkey in 2003. In 2004, Blue Stream exports are estimated at 70.7 billion cubic feet (2bcm).
Russia says it has the world's largest known natural-gas reserves and one-eighth of the world's oil reserves. According to Russia's Economic Development and Trade Ministry, this year Russia's natural-gas exports will reach a record high 198bcm (more than 189.4bcm in 2003). In 2007, according to the ministry, gas exports could reach 252bcm.
Russia's state-controlled Gazprom, which exports natural gas to nine European countries, including Turkey, netted US$16.5 billion from gas exports in 2003 and its gas-export revenues are estimated at $18 billion in 2004. Russian gas deliveries to Western Europe began back in 1968, and the continent has remained Gazprom's main export market since. Under contracts already signed, Gazprom's exports to Europe would reportedly reach 180bcm by 2010. The Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, now being built through Belarus and Poland, would have an annual capacity of 35bcm.
Russia has been mulling an ambitious $6 billion project to supply Siberian gas directly to Europe. A 1,200-kilometer underwater section of the pipeline with annual capacity around 19bcm would pass through international waters and link Russia's Vyborg with German shores. To deal with this project, Gazprom would draw on its Blue Stream pipeline experience. Russia also plans to boost its LNG output and exports. The Prigorodnoye LNG plant in southern Sakhalin, with an annual capacity of 9.6 million tonnes a year, is due onstream in 2007, aiming to tap Japanese and Korean energy markets. A tentative long-term deal to export Sakhalin LNG to the US East Coast has been under discussion as well.
Moscow also views eastern Siberia, with estimated reserves of 6.6 trillion cubic meters, as a future gas hub, with output reaching 110bcm per year by 2020. Russian industry estimates suggest that the Asia-Pacific region's demand for natural gas could go up from 370bcm in 2005 to 651bcm in 2020. By 2020, Russia aims at exporting up to 38bcm of gas to the Asia-Pacific, mainly China, Japan and South Korea, including re-export from Central Asia.
The delivery of gas to China has been planned to go via a 2,000km pipeline from the Kovykta gas field - with proven reserves of 2 trillion cubic meters and the capacity to produce 36bcm per year - to Blagoveshchensk near the Chinese border. The first deliveries of 20bcm annually of natural gas to China along with 10bcm to South Korea are expected in 2010. However, Russia is seemingly flip-flopping on a new China-bound gas pipeline, although Beijing reportedly offered to bear part of the construction cost in return for gas.
In terms of a multilateral approach, Russia has been pushing for a "Eurasian Alliance of Natural Gas Producers" that would include Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. It has been dubbed a "Central Asian OPEC" that would aim at "cooperation in energy policy and measures to defend interests of natural gas producers". However, the Russia-dominated Central Asian OPEC (a reference to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) seems to remain an elusive goal, and Moscow still struggles to sustain its traditional influence in its own back yard.
Turkmenistan's president for life, Saparmurat Niyazov, has been acting up lately, causing strains in ties with Russia. On December 31, Turkmenistan cut off natural-gas supplies to Russia and Ukraine. Gas deliveries to Russia were suspended for a week for "maintenance operations". Turkmen authorities indicated that a new agreement on the sale of gas to Russia would be reached in early January. Turkmen authorities reportedly demand $60 per 1,000 cubic meters, an amount to which Gazprom is not inclined to concede.
In April 2003, Russia and Turkmenistan signed a 25-year contract on gas supplies. Turkmenistan pledged to supply 100bcm of gas to Russia from 2010 onward, or a total of 2 trillion cubic meters in 25 years. Turkmen authorities had claimed that the deal would bring Turkmenistan $200 billion and $300 billion to Russia in those 25 years. Turkmenistan resumed natural-gas supplies to Russia this Monday. However, Gazprom reportedly declined to increase the price and continues to pay Turkmenistan $44 per thousand cubic meters, 50% in barter and 50% in cash, as it was stipulated in an April 2003 deal.
Turkmenistan's gas is important to Moscow because Gazprom needs it to make up for the shortages created by its export commitments to its Western European customers. Gazprom's annual shortfall in supplying Russia's domestic market has been estimated at 30-40bcm. In the long term, Turkmenistan's unpredictability could eventually threaten Moscow's plans of Central Asian gas re-export to the Asia-Pacific.
Sergei Blagov covers Russia and post-Soviet states, with special attention to Asia-related issues. He has contributed to Asia Times Online since 1996. Between 1983 and 1997, he was based in Southeast Asia. In 2001 and 2002, Nova Science Publishers, New York, published two of his books on Vietnamese history.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/GA13Ag01.html
Russia has been mulling an ambitious $6 billion project to supply Siberian gas directly to Europe. A 1,200-kilometer underwater section of the pipeline with annual capacity around 19bcm would pass through international waters and link Russia's Vyborg with German shores.
This pipeline would give Putin who is being blocked by Bush a good option and chance of getting gas to Europe.
One of the major reasons the New World Order strategists were determined to put their man, Yushchenko, in control of Ukraine was to insure that Ukraine becomes part of NATO, now a military alliance with an offensive military doctrine used by the United States for its grandiose dreams of global domination.
#msg-4646886
#msg-4674009
An additional factor is the strategic significance of Ukraine. Eighty percent of Russian gas and oil exports to Europe—its most important source of foreign exchange—flows through Ukrainian pipelines. The main base of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Sebastopol, is also situated on Ukrainian national territory.
“It would not take a war to greatly damage Russian interests, simply a change in Ukraine’s geopolitical orientation. A Westernised Ukraine would not so much be a dagger poised at the heart of Russia as it would be a jackhammer in constant operation,” according to Stratfor. A possible consequence, according to the news service, is a more aggressive foreign policy on the part of Russia as well as powerful domestic shocks in the course of which “millions of people could die.”
#msg-4921554
"The U.S. strategy toward Russia is aimed at weakening its international position and ousting it from strategically important regions of the world, above all, the Caspian region, the Transcaucasus and Central Asia."
The U.S.--and specifically the Clinton White House--was determined to oppose any "north/south" pipelines. The White House adopted a plan, cooked up by long-time ruling class strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski, to create an "east-west" pipe which would bypass both Russia and Iran.
The U.S. intends to strip Russia of control over this oil. And the U.S. wants the Caspian oilfields to be completely independent of the Persian Gulf--to diminish the importance of Persian Gulf states in the world economy.
#msg-3775550
Russia's gas dreams
By Sergei Blagov
Jan 13, 2005
MOSCOW - As part of Russia's all-around energy game, the Kremlin has pledged to boost natural-gas supplies to Turkey, and possibly to Israel as well. But despite its ambitious vision of tapping gas export markets in the Mediterranean, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, Moscow still struggles to sustain its traditional influence in its own Eurasian back yard.
Russia will increase natural-gas supplies to Turkey, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Tuesday, after talks with visiting Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Russian companies would join construction of Turkish distribution facilities, said Putin, adding that negotiations are on over joint liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and Russian gas supplies to third countries via Turkey.
Russian and Turkish officials have reportedly discussed the possibility of extending the Blue Stream pipeline, which runs from Russia to Turkey via the Black Sea, to Israel. Last year, Gazprom chief executive officer Alexei Miller traveled to Israel for talks on natural-gas exports via a Russian pipeline to Turkey. Miller met Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who reportedly indicated Israel's interest in long-term gas-supply agreements with the Russian gas monopoly. The Blue Stream pipeline carried some 46 billion cubic feet (1.3 billion cubic meters) of Russian natural gas to Turkey in 2003. In 2004, Blue Stream exports are estimated at 70.7 billion cubic feet (2bcm).
Russia says it has the world's largest known natural-gas reserves and one-eighth of the world's oil reserves. According to Russia's Economic Development and Trade Ministry, this year Russia's natural-gas exports will reach a record high 198bcm (more than 189.4bcm in 2003). In 2007, according to the ministry, gas exports could reach 252bcm.
Russia's state-controlled Gazprom, which exports natural gas to nine European countries, including Turkey, netted US$16.5 billion from gas exports in 2003 and its gas-export revenues are estimated at $18 billion in 2004. Russian gas deliveries to Western Europe began back in 1968, and the continent has remained Gazprom's main export market since. Under contracts already signed, Gazprom's exports to Europe would reportedly reach 180bcm by 2010. The Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, now being built through Belarus and Poland, would have an annual capacity of 35bcm.
Russia has been mulling an ambitious $6 billion project to supply Siberian gas directly to Europe. A 1,200-kilometer underwater section of the pipeline with annual capacity around 19bcm would pass through international waters and link Russia's Vyborg with German shores. To deal with this project, Gazprom would draw on its Blue Stream pipeline experience. Russia also plans to boost its LNG output and exports. The Prigorodnoye LNG plant in southern Sakhalin, with an annual capacity of 9.6 million tonnes a year, is due onstream in 2007, aiming to tap Japanese and Korean energy markets. A tentative long-term deal to export Sakhalin LNG to the US East Coast has been under discussion as well.
Moscow also views eastern Siberia, with estimated reserves of 6.6 trillion cubic meters, as a future gas hub, with output reaching 110bcm per year by 2020. Russian industry estimates suggest that the Asia-Pacific region's demand for natural gas could go up from 370bcm in 2005 to 651bcm in 2020. By 2020, Russia aims at exporting up to 38bcm of gas to the Asia-Pacific, mainly China, Japan and South Korea, including re-export from Central Asia.
The delivery of gas to China has been planned to go via a 2,000km pipeline from the Kovykta gas field - with proven reserves of 2 trillion cubic meters and the capacity to produce 36bcm per year - to Blagoveshchensk near the Chinese border. The first deliveries of 20bcm annually of natural gas to China along with 10bcm to South Korea are expected in 2010. However, Russia is seemingly flip-flopping on a new China-bound gas pipeline, although Beijing reportedly offered to bear part of the construction cost in return for gas.
In terms of a multilateral approach, Russia has been pushing for a "Eurasian Alliance of Natural Gas Producers" that would include Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. It has been dubbed a "Central Asian OPEC" that would aim at "cooperation in energy policy and measures to defend interests of natural gas producers". However, the Russia-dominated Central Asian OPEC (a reference to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) seems to remain an elusive goal, and Moscow still struggles to sustain its traditional influence in its own back yard.
Turkmenistan's president for life, Saparmurat Niyazov, has been acting up lately, causing strains in ties with Russia. On December 31, Turkmenistan cut off natural-gas supplies to Russia and Ukraine. Gas deliveries to Russia were suspended for a week for "maintenance operations". Turkmen authorities indicated that a new agreement on the sale of gas to Russia would be reached in early January. Turkmen authorities reportedly demand $60 per 1,000 cubic meters, an amount to which Gazprom is not inclined to concede.
In April 2003, Russia and Turkmenistan signed a 25-year contract on gas supplies. Turkmenistan pledged to supply 100bcm of gas to Russia from 2010 onward, or a total of 2 trillion cubic meters in 25 years. Turkmen authorities had claimed that the deal would bring Turkmenistan $200 billion and $300 billion to Russia in those 25 years. Turkmenistan resumed natural-gas supplies to Russia this Monday. However, Gazprom reportedly declined to increase the price and continues to pay Turkmenistan $44 per thousand cubic meters, 50% in barter and 50% in cash, as it was stipulated in an April 2003 deal.
Turkmenistan's gas is important to Moscow because Gazprom needs it to make up for the shortages created by its export commitments to its Western European customers. Gazprom's annual shortfall in supplying Russia's domestic market has been estimated at 30-40bcm. In the long term, Turkmenistan's unpredictability could eventually threaten Moscow's plans of Central Asian gas re-export to the Asia-Pacific.
Sergei Blagov covers Russia and post-Soviet states, with special attention to Asia-related issues. He has contributed to Asia Times Online since 1996. Between 1983 and 1997, he was based in Southeast Asia. In 2001 and 2002, Nova Science Publishers, New York, published two of his books on Vietnamese history.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/GA13Ag01.html
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