$Stock*Shop*Charts*News*Option$

[Tuff-Stuff]

Environmental Scenario's>>A brief roundup of links for those of you thinking forward, to risk of more catastrophic environmental scenarios. My quick take is that Ixtoc released 3 mb over 270 days, thus at an average rate of 11.1 kbpd. We still don't know what Macondo is producing, but based on my research and observation of the event now for several weeks from myriad sources, I would think 20 kbpd is starting to look reasonable, if not conservative. Thus, Macondo will only take half the time on average, to release what Ixtoc released. Again, roughly speaking. I conclude that Macondo, given current timelines to success of relief wells (the only mitigation with a high chance of success) will likely release at least as much oil as Ixtoc.

Some links that I have collected today, via conversations with friends:

from OIL DRUM Current Thread posted by gregor on May 29, 2010 - 11:20pm http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6523




Lake Nyos http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nyos
On August 21, 1986, possibly triggered by a landslide, Lake Nyos suddenly emitted a large cloud of CO2, which suffocated 1,700 people and 3,500 livestock in nearby villages.


Thresholds of hypoxia for marine biodiversity
http://www.pnas.org/content/105/40/15452.abstract

Hypoxia is a mounting problem affecting the world's coastal waters, with severe consequences for marine life, including death and catastrophic changes.

Expanding Oxygen-Minimum Zones in the Tropical Oceans

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/320/5876/655

Oxygen-poor waters occupy large volumes of the intermediate-depth eastern tropical oceans. Oxygen-poor conditions have far-reaching impacts on ecosystems because important mobile macroorganisms avoid or cannot survive in hypoxic zones.

Hypoxia.net - Northern Gulf of Mexico
http://www.gulfhypoxia.net/

The largest hypoxic zone currently affecting the United States, and the second largest hypoxic zone worldwide, is the northern Gulf of Mexico adjacent to the Mississippi River.

G