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Re: akirsch post# 27749

Saturday, 09/21/2002 7:20:17 PM

Saturday, September 21, 2002 7:20:17 PM

Post# of 704041
Andrea, I'll repeat, sometimes, the news environment get that bad that it cannot get worse. Look for instance at the sox, a full 96% of all the semi's are under their short term moving average (10 DMA) and only 1% are above their 200 DMA (on 9/19, on the 20th it already improved a little), can it get much worse? Compare to two recent lows in the Sox, on 7/23 these numbers were 92% and 3% and on another intermediate low 8/5, these were 95% and 2%. So what, we get 100% under the 10 DMA and 0% under the 200 DMA? Extremes like that create powerful rallies. If you remember, one of the reasons for my 8/22 bear suit move was the too rapid increase in the number of Sox stock above their 10 DMA, if memory serves, it was 85% going there in less than two weeks from 5%. When extremes in any direction occur, they call for sharp reversals, IMTO.

I have already mentioned today the extreme in the equity P/C ratio as well, and there are others.

Zeev


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