Or, you could be right, but a third scenario plays out. Technicals break it out to the positive side as they almost always do, but the interest and volume wakes up the sleeping dilution machine leaving only a manner of days, minutes, or seconds to get out with any kind of profit before it gets re-activated.
If you're lucky and not greedy, you could still make out. But to me, there are much better places to make a play.