Zeev's Ideas

[Koikaze]

ZEEV, GOLD - up to ZEEV:343026, 01/09/05

01/03: (340435) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I think you said you think GOLD will correct to 380 to 390. 418 is the likely low to me, although I could pick other starting rally points that would lower the retracement. What do you think? Anyone else?

[Suppressed Chart Link]
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You must have misread me, in the "annual forecast" I suggested a cap on Gold in the $480/490 range (#msg-4929099), and earlier in December (12/8, #msg-4769107), I suggested a swoon to around $420 and expressed doubts that short term gold would go under $400.


01/04: (341063) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, what do you think about gold stocks during the Nassacre? Will the go down in sympathy or will they go up on worries about collapsing dollar? Or will the above two reasons cancel each other? Thanks.
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I fear that late in the Nassacre, gold stocks will be thrown out with the rest, but that stage is still far out, right here with gold around $420, what I think should serve as support short term, some select gold might not be a bad bet. I missed entry in NEM today by a nickel I'll try again tomorrow, though $41 is an important support for NEM and I may wait to see if it holds. I do not see a collapse of the dollar so I do not expect an extremely big move for gold (see #msg-4929099).


01/04: (341075) (*COMMENT*)
I can see the miners being sold off, but not Gold itself (GLD). That should pretty much follow the $US, and since a big market drop means much less in tax revenues for the Feds (and thus a bigger budget deficit), and will certainly cause the Fed to cut rates, I can't see the $US rising much, if at all.
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Rise and fall (the US Dollar) against what? Many Asian countries are pegged. Against the Euro, I doubt there is much more to go, Europe is in much worse shape economically then we are and strengthening Euro exacerbate this. Thus unless we get depegging in Asia, I doubt the dollar has much more to go, thus gold, even the metal, is probably bound above by another $30 to $40 above the recent high, if the $450 we had was not the high for the next year. The miner, they often follow the market during late stage declines.


01/08: (342879)
(*COMMENT*)

(Part 1)
Near the close, they did give me that NEM after all, do I still want it Monday? (g).

(Part 2)
Zeev, Yes I noticed this a.m. I too got hit.
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What are your plans? It breached slightly earlier this week the September lows (when gold swooned just under $400), but I have the $420 area here as potential support for Gold (congestion area from both October and last March/April), and we never closed under that $41.35 level. If $41 is breached, I'll probably take my lumps myself... what says you, or our expert Dan? Good I built a bucker cushion earlier in the week, so failure of $41 will not hurt that much (g).