Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: HCV sales forecast

If I were in the position to provide a forecast for the HCV market, it would be a fraction of what DR is quoting - they are just too exuberant about their uptake assumptions.

Well, you’re on record that you expect 2013 sales of HCV drugs to be less than $7.7B, so that’s a start :- ) You could go out on a limb and make this more precise by choosing: a) $3-4.5B; b) $4.5-6B; or c) >$6B. (I presume you think sales will be at least $3B, so I didn’t offer a choice for less than that.)

I also disagree that it's all downhill after the first bolus of treatment-experienced patients get re-treated and cured. They are ignoring an important element that a lot of people cannot or will not be willing to get re-treated as long as the SOC includes IFN, so there will be another peak post 2015 when the first oral combo comes to market.

In all likelihood, the larger initial bolus will not be the treatment-experienced patients, but rather the treatment-naïve patients who chose not to get treated with the prior SoC. I agree with your contention that Decision Resources’ prediction of a 55% decline in sales from 2013 to 2018 seems unjustified. However, I do not think the sales curve will have a marked post-2013 decline followed by a second spike when the first all-oral cocktail is approved in the latter half of the decade; rather, I see sales gradually rising from the initial Telaprevir/Boceprevir spurt through the middle of the decade and then stabilizing at that level for several years.