Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Israel wary about India’s growing naval strength

To cement their relationship India and Iran have just signed a $40b LNG deal.
#msg-5049789

-Am

Israel wary about India’s growing naval strength

By Khalid Hasan

Washington: Israel is keeping a cautious eye on this budding relationship with India and will keep quiet as long as the connection does not become overtly military in nature, as it does not want an Iran with a strong naval and air presence capable of striking Israeli interests, according to an analysis put out by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Writing in the current issue of South Asia Monitor’s the Centre’s monthly publication, Pramit Mitra argues that Pakistan that considered Iran a critically important ally during the time of the Shah, has had increasingly troubled relations with Tehran in the past decade. Iran has been seen backing Pakistan’s opponents on the Afghan political scene and has been mplicated in sectarian violence inside Pakistan. Good relations between India and Iran leave Pakistan feeling “isolated and surrounded,” he writes. Pakistan, he notes, has worked hard to expand its own trade with Iran to counteract India’s perceived efforts to outflank it.

Mitra writes that the “breakthrough” in India-Iran relations came in January 2003, when President Mohammed Khatami took the podium as the chief guest at India’s Republic Day parade, an honour reserved for New Delhi’s most trusted friends. Both countries signed the “New Delhi Declaration” promising to expand trade. Since then, bilateral relations have progressed gradually, driven by a mutual desire to expand trade links, especially in oil and natural gas, and a common strategic outlook in Afghanistan and Central Asia. There is also limited but growing cooperation in military and security affairs, much to the consternation of Pakistan. But the more interesting question is India’s role in the event the nuclear crisis in Iran reaches some kind of showdown. India’s growing ties with Israel and warm relations with the United States only add to the complication.

Mitra maintains that an overland gas pipeline from Iran through Pakistan to India is still problematic. The Islamic extremist groups that have been most troublesome for President Pervez Musharraf, including those implicated in the assassination attempts against him, are overwhelmingly Sunni. Provided the political risk issues could be resolved, a gas pipeline through Pakistan into India could assist both in stabilising Pakistan-Iran relations and in building constituencies for India-Pakistan peace.

The analysis notes that the United States has said relatively little about India-Iran relations. The growing economic ties are moving in the opposite direction from Washington’s continuing effort to isolate the Tehran regime but are not likely to draw much US response. India has not spoken out about other issues that trouble the United States in Iran, such as its policy in Iraq or trafficking of illicit goods and narcotics.

Iran’s nuclear program, however, Mitra believes, is another story. For the United States, preventing a nuclear Iran is likely to be a major foreign policy goal for the foreseeable future. India would undoubtedly prefer not to have additional nuclear powers in the region, but has until now not had to, and not wanted to, do anything about this issue.

India and the United States have been gradually identifying ways they can cooperate in preventing the further spread of nuclear technology as part of their next steps in strategic partnership. But India will be reluctant to participate publicly in nonproliferation efforts aimed at Iran, and these may become an increasingly important issue for the United States. Reconciling these different priorities between the United States and India will be a challenge, he predicts.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_8-1-2005_pg7_13