Biotech Values

[ciotera]

Just curious - have you actually seen the DR model and the uptake they are modeling for Telaprevir and Boceprivir? It's one thing to throw around numbers like $7.7, it's quite another to understand where that projected growth going to come from and what it implies. Are there really that many IFN eligible (and they would have to be IFN eligible) patients waiting in HCV treaters' offices (and they would have to be waiting there, otherwise Vertex needs to drive referrals from PCPs)? And even if Vertex or Merck succeed in driving referrals, with the limited number of treaters out there, is it even possible to increase their practice size 3+ fold within a year or two? Can they handle that patient load? Will the payers agree to pay for expensive DAA add-on for Genotype 2/3 or Allele CC patients? More importantly, will patients who have already once gone through the IFN hell, be willing to do it again + experience a rash, all for higher efficacy?

These are all reasons why I think DR is way off the mark. All IMHO, of course.