Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: HCV PI competition (IDIX market research)

I think I am guilty of being similarly negative as mcbio on the prospects of Telapervir. The company may prove me wrong if VX-222 (or another compound they license/develop) turns out to be adequate in treating HCV without PEG and/or ribavirin. Then perhaps they can leverage being first into given them descent market share in a new treatment paradigm including Telaprevir.

Agreed we don't know what the future will be 7-8 years out I see it as being crowded though which means Vertex has a tough fight on its hands going forward (a bit too risky for me for their market cap).

Just to add on to the relevant discussion, in reading through IDIX's most recent annual report (not on 10-K) I noticed that page three shows a table of how quickly IDIX believes the HCV treatment paradigm will evolve based on their own market research. IDIX lists telaprevir or boceprevir as the PI of choice in 2012 combined with PegIFN and ribavirin, a first or second generation PI around 2013-2014 as part of a direct-acting antiviral cocktail along with PegIFN and ribavirin, and a 2nd or 3rd generation PI to be the standard component of a direct-acting antiviral cocktail around 2014-2017 minus PegIFN and possibly without ribavirin as well.

So, going off of IDIX's own market research, they anticipate that telaprevir and boceprevir could begin to lose market share as early as 2013-2014 and possibly be completely replaced as early as 2014 or as late as 2017. Obviously there's a bit of window here and it's only one company's market research, but interesting nonetheless.