You, obviously, are thinking a hostile takeover, a new BOD and possibly Visteon withdrawing from BK. If my memory servers me correctly, this would cost the company (and HFs own 50% of it at this point) an additional $700M if a tax relief that they would have to forgo, according to the following document, filed in the BK court on 3/30/2010:
Now, this all depends on how much the HFs think the company is worth. $700M can be either a lot of money, or a chump-change, depending on whether they think (for example) that the company is worth $2B or $8B.
To me the first sign that the HFs are seriously thinking about a hostile takeover would be to see the various HFs banding together and working in unison in the court. Why spent all the money, if you can bring the other guys on board. But this did not happen (yet?). The last time in the court, there were lawyers from all of the HFs bouncing around the court-room, selling their own brand of snake oil. No wonder the judge got a little sour...
But there may not be a need for a hostile takeover to occur to make the BOD "see the light". A mere threat of a hostile takeover can make them change their tune. I, in contrast to many other posters on this and (mostly) other boards, do not think that the BOD is a bunch of looser. The turned the company around, after all, didn't they? The company started making money, didn't it? They are not stupid, and I trust they will do whatever minimum is necessary to keep their seats and lucrative bonuses they receive. Remember, the Cold War was won using the MAD concept (Mutually Assured Destruction) and no shots were really fired. Maybe a similar thing will happen here.
But before we get there, the HFs should be at the magic mark of 50%. The last official count puts them at 30%-some, I think.
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