Biotech Values

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Antares Pharma (AIS) update

1q10 results were released today, lost 2 cents per shares and have about 12m in cash. A few notes from the call and other recent developments:

Injectables.
The most advanced Teva collaboration product (not counting HgH which is already on the market) was revealed today to be Epinephine/EpiPen ($270m US market)- I think was revealed because King Pharma's citizen's petition was just rejected. Tight-lipped as always about other injectibles parntered with Teva

They also recently formed a collaboration to develop autoinjector-administered Methotrexate for RA and other autoimmune diseases with Canadian company Uman. MTX is co-prescribed with most RA biologics which are generally self-injected. The current dosing options aren't optimal (1) intramuscular injection with needle and syringe, often at Dr's office or (2) oral, which is limited to 12-15mg dose because GI carrier gets saturated, also GI side effects problem. The goal is to finalize clinical plans with FDA, start trials in 2010, complete these in 2011, launch in 2013. 150-250m market in US, also seeking European partner to join the collaboration.

Transdermal gel products
Anturol (overactive bladder) data will be available in 3q10, plan to partner after this.

Contraceptive gel: Population Council is leading partnering talks, have signed several CDAs, cautiously optimistic for 2010 deal

Libigel- nothing new to report. Note that AIS gets 25% of any US license fees to BPAX plus royalties. AIS also owns the ROW rights. My concern here is that all signs IMO point to an outright sale of BPAX after positive p3 data, which would reduce the value to AIS somewhat.

All told, I have trouble envisioning a scenario other than the eventual purchase of Antares by Teva to be able to use the injectables technology for their numerous present and future drugs as more and more self-injected products come off patent. Current enterprise values is ~$120-130M