Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

DNDN GNVC:

…Dew did adjust [the forecasted HR] from 1.20 at some point to 1.25 - but I don't remember when relative to the interim.

My 1.25 forecast was in Apr 2008, many months before the interim analysis was made public (#msg-28441649).

For Ocyan to come over here to try to spin his bloated HR forecast of 1.45+ as a stroke of genius shows how far he will obfuscate when his mathematical models turn out wide of the mark (#msg-49710195).

p.s. With DNDN, Ocyan was at least in the right ballpark; with GNVC’s PACT study of TNFerade, Ocyan’s model was not even in the right zip code.

As long as Ocyan continues to deny that program-survival bias is a real phenomenon—and his post on iHub today gives no indication that this will change—Ocyan’s models will continue to be biased high relative the true efficacy of the therapies being modeled. The inevitable outcome is that Ocyan’s models will produce relatively few good forecasts and relatively many boneheaded ones, such as the one he made for GNVC.