AI
Monday, May 03, 2010 10:32:15 PM
Revs sure surprised me for the Q. Although there is still some wiggle in the prelim revs #. Maybe if it is on the low end of their estimate ($37.4 mill), some would slip into next Q.
I was thinking we would have to wait another Q to see some (hopeful) fat #s because of the east coast weather havoc from Jan/Feb.
But regardless the value play has always been there even around $6 and no earnings IMO so wasn't in a big hurry to move on with the macrotrend drivers in place.
Would like to see improving cashflow eventually but now they're expanding into heavy vehicles so that may temper that thought going fwd (need for continued inventory build).
I thought worst case we'd see a 0-5 cent EPS Q and maybe $30 mill revs but even that wouldn't have put a major dent in share price IMO with the tangible book value and historical company market value.
This is just one Q but the top line looks healthy.
If things get rolling I'm still hoping for double digits share price this year but not a low float frenzy type here.
More a potential creepy crawly toward $10-$12.
I am tempted to get in on the eventual CC to ask about rough idea of revs in the March Q to get a feel what 'on fire' means for that month and just how big it was
And if that kind of Q is potentially repeatable going forward or more tied to the potential one time pent up conditions from weather and low seasonal inventory at retailers (to put the CEO on the spot a little re forecasting repeatability or not on the March month).
Also would be curious if they've used any of the share buyback $ yet...
Am hoping to see SGA remain quite stable (it is too high currently IMO but stable with revs growth would alleviate some of that concern) as the revs travel thru to the bottom line. Hopefully.
We'll see.
This is another decent find by you IMO, as long as the general idea of higher demand from more cost-conscious public continues to build the DIY and DIFM markets for alts and starters going forward.
On the technical side (not at all my strength), this thing had a long washout cycle before turning back up recently which hopefully got rid of loosey goosie shares. That may also portend a more extended run if buying demand is there but who knows. Never was good with that technical stuff.
I was thinking we would have to wait another Q to see some (hopeful) fat #s because of the east coast weather havoc from Jan/Feb.
But regardless the value play has always been there even around $6 and no earnings IMO so wasn't in a big hurry to move on with the macrotrend drivers in place.
Would like to see improving cashflow eventually but now they're expanding into heavy vehicles so that may temper that thought going fwd (need for continued inventory build).
I thought worst case we'd see a 0-5 cent EPS Q and maybe $30 mill revs but even that wouldn't have put a major dent in share price IMO with the tangible book value and historical company market value.
This is just one Q but the top line looks healthy.
If things get rolling I'm still hoping for double digits share price this year but not a low float frenzy type here.
More a potential creepy crawly toward $10-$12.
I am tempted to get in on the eventual CC to ask about rough idea of revs in the March Q to get a feel what 'on fire' means for that month and just how big it was
And if that kind of Q is potentially repeatable going forward or more tied to the potential one time pent up conditions from weather and low seasonal inventory at retailers (to put the CEO on the spot a little re forecasting repeatability or not on the March month).
Also would be curious if they've used any of the share buyback $ yet...
Am hoping to see SGA remain quite stable (it is too high currently IMO but stable with revs growth would alleviate some of that concern) as the revs travel thru to the bottom line. Hopefully.
We'll see.
This is another decent find by you IMO, as long as the general idea of higher demand from more cost-conscious public continues to build the DIY and DIFM markets for alts and starters going forward.
On the technical side (not at all my strength), this thing had a long washout cycle before turning back up recently which hopefully got rid of loosey goosie shares. That may also portend a more extended run if buying demand is there but who knows. Never was good with that technical stuff.
I don't mind stealing bread from the mouths of decadence... But I can't feed on the powerless when my cup's already overfilled.
-Temple of the Dog
