Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

AGN’s 1Q10 Lastisse sales were surprisingly low; from the CC last week:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/202107-allergan-q1-2010-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

[while] LATISSE sales soared by 52.6% [vs 1Q09], Q1 sales of $18.8 million were sequentially $7 million lower than in Q4. Some part of the decline is perhaps due to seasonality, as Q4 is the highest quarter of the year for BOTOX dermal fillers. At the margin, trade inventory was also in retrospect a little higher than our normally targeted level.

But perhaps most importantly, experienced LATISSE users are learning how to stretch out a bottle of product, which is good for the economics of the use but of course means that we have to recruit more users to attain the same value sales.

Reflecting back on the experience with the early years of BOTOX Cosmetic, we have probably brought on board the early adopters, but now need to expand into the mainstream. Clearly there's lots of potential, as doctors and consumers are pleased with the performance of the product. And we estimate today that only 20% to 25% of BOTOX Cosmetic users are buyers of LATISSE.

Our investment in DTC [direct-to-consumer marketing] will continue throughout the year. In order to stimulate demand for LATISSE from existing users of Allergan products, we are currently running a LATISSE anniversary offer with coupon which gives $50 off for BOTOX treatment and $50 off a treatment of JUVÉDERM for a total of $100 rebate with the purchase of LATISSE.

Notably, AGN did not lower the prior guidance of 2010 full-year Latisse sales of $140M. The long-term prospects for the product remain strong, IMO (#msg-47187268).

p.s. I’m curious to know how users are “learning how to stretch out a bottle of product” without sacrificing efficacy.