In today’s CC, DuPont indicated that they expect a decision from the EPA within a week regarding their refuge-in-a-bag application. And, ... they expect that the refuge requirement will be 10%.
If DuPont’s expectations prove true, Monsanto’s SmartStax will lose a significant competitive advantage (see #msg-46521170 & #msg-43809790). Even so, it could have been worse. DuPont had a chance for a decision that would have been soon enough to allow an aggressive introduction in 2010 and they had/have a chance to get a 5% refuge mix approval.
The relevant CC quotes are:
Prepared Remarks (Nicholas C. Fanandakis, SVP and CFO):
Before turning to crop protection, I want to give you a brief update on AcreMax 1 plans. We don’t have the EPA approval today but we anticipate a positive EPA decision within a week. For 2010 planting, our objective is to demonstrate the product value with farmers in the field setting the stage for a 2011 commercial launch. To that end, we have product in over 2,600 plots strategically placed allowing thousands of farmers to experience the performance during 2010 planting.
Q&A
<Question – David Begleiter>: Thank you. Good morning. Ellen, on AcreMax, are you expecting the approval at 10% refuge reduction, and are you actually selling AcreMax this year or just in some test plots with farmers? Could you describe what’s happening with the 2,600 test plots out there? <Answer – Ellen Kullman>: Sure, thanks David. The EPA has not announced their decision. We have not seen the registration. We do expect it within the next week. You know, they’ve been – the discussions have been very consistent and positive, supporting both refuge in a bag and refuge reduction. So it’s not only – it’s a convenience factor in there as well. Now, if I were to guess and anticipate based off the discussions, I’d call it at a 90/10 product, you know. And those products yield very, very well vs. their conventional counterparts. So we’re going to have it out in demonstration plots probably over 2,600 plots this year so that farmers can really understand the yield and the capability of this product. So we’re very excited about it.
<Question – Prashant Juvekar>: Good morning. Just quickly on AcreMax, just to follow up, you know with all this extra 2,600 plots that you’re demonstrating your technology, and you got an extra year to prepare, which is 2010, how big would your launch be in 2011 for AcreMax? <Answer – Ellen Kullman>: I think we’re not going to predict that at this point. Our goal this year is to really allow thousands of farmers to see the yield and the productivity that AcreMax 1 provides and I think that’s really going to build the excitement around what we can do in 2011.
<Question – Kevin McCarthy>: Then to follow up on Optimum AcreMax 1, just to clarify, would you intend to go to a refuge in the bag delivery system at a 10% refuge level, and if so, when might you be in a position to start sales in a RiB mode? <Answer – Ellen Kullman>: So when we get the registration from the EPA which we expect in a week, our expectations or discussions with them indicate that the 90/10 is probable. At least in the way I’m calling it now. So that’s the product we will be getting out in the bag into the marketplace and get those demonstration plots in this year. So that’s going to provide us with the opportunity to show the real value to the growers, not only its yield, but its convenience, that will be used to greatly support our 2011 commercial launch.
AI
