Foreign Correspondence

[StephanieVanbryce]

Russia and China forge new military ties

posted December 29, 2004, updated 12:00 p.m
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Analysts say decision to hold war games may be message to the West.

by Tom Regan / csmonitor.com


http://www.guardian.co.uk/russia/article/0,2763,1380163,00.html In a move that foreign policy analysts see as Russia's response to a "spat" with the West over the election in Ukraine, the Guardian reported Monday Moscow has reiterated its intention to hold wars games with China in 2005. China Daily reports that although the original announcement was made by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov during a visit to China two weeks ago, the first time Western media extensively covered the story followed his statement during a cabinet meeting Monday at the Kremlin.

"For the first time in history, we have agreed to hold quite a large military exercise together with China on Chinese territory in the second half of the year," Mr. Ivanov said at a cabinet session chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to the ITAR-Tass news agency. "The Russian side will not bring big numbers of servicemen, but mostly state-of-the art weapons - navy, air, long-range aviation, submarines - to practice interaction with China in different forms of military maneuvers."


The Seattle Times reports that some experts see the move as an attempt by Russia to remind the West it can't be taken for granted.
"It's a response to a series of political defeats Russia has suffered, most recently in Ukraine [where President Vladimir Putin backed the losing candidate]," said Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in Global Affairs Magazine. "It's a reminder that Russia is still a great military power."
The BBC reports that China accounts for about one-half of Russia's weapons exports, and that both nations share the concept of a "multi-polar" world, rather than one dominated by the US as the sole superpower.
The Associated Press reports that Russia also wants to forge stronger ties with India, its second-largest customer for weapons. In a visit to India earlier this month, Mr. Putin pushed for a trilaterial summit meeting with India and China, and condemned the US "dictatorship of international affairs."

But in a report on Radio Free Europe, independent Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer dismissed the idea of such a union of the three countries.

Each country has its own specific geopolitical concerns – China has Taiwan, Russia has Ukraine, and India has Pakistan and Kashmir ... "A union like that isn't very likely," Felgenhauer said. "Individually, of course, these countries [are not very strong] – especially Russia, whose economic potential is a tiny percentage of the economic potential of the West. There isn't any realistic possibility of becoming a major superpower on a world scale. Even to maintain [Russia's] current status will be hard, given the kind of weak economy and weak military that we have now."
In a related announcement Monday, Beijing released a defense white paper. Chinaview.cn reports several foreign military attaches in China described the document as a "positive" development which showed China's military was becoming more "open and transparent."

However, Taipei Times reports that the white paper also said that China views pro-independence activities in Taiwan as "the biggest immediate threat to China's sovereignty and territorial integrity." In order to respond to this "threat" from Taiwan, and an "increase in global uncertainty," China plans to modernize its armed forces.

"New changes are occurring in the balance of power among the major international players," China's State Council said in a 100-page white paper on the nation's military. "However, a fair and rational new international political and economic order is yet to be established." As the balance of power shifts, China is stepping up efforts to make its 2.5 million troops more effective, flexible and able to adapt to a high-tech world, it said. A key goal is "transforming the military from a manpower-intensive one to a technology-intensive one," it said.
The Washington Times reports that US Secretary of State Colin Powell urged both mainland China and Taiwan to remain calm. Mr. Powell said that he did not see cause for concern at the moment and that everyone involved realized that this was not "the time to escalate tension in the straits ..."
The Times also reported that the US is offering "advanced arms to Taiwan to counter China's growing military threat, which includes advanced warships, new submarines and the deployment of more than 600 short-range missiles within range of the island."


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