Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Here’s a blow-by-blow log of how much ObamaCare will cost Big
Pharma in 2010-2011. According to JNJ, aggregate lost sales for
the pharma industry will be $4B in 2010 and $11B in 2011 (when
the Medicare donut-hole rebate kicks in). These figures do not even
count the new excise taxes on the pharma and med-device industries.
BAX, not mentioned below , is another company to cut 2010 guidance
due to ObamaCare; its stock fell 13% Thursday. To date, among Big
Pharma, only NVS has escaped a big hit (#msg-49251301).

http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2010/04/22/health-care-overhaul-and-drugmaker-outlook-amgen

›Healthcare Overhaul and Drugmaker Outlook

April 22, 2010
By Katherine Hobson

Biotech Amgen yesterday became the latest drug company to reduce its outlook because of health-care overhaul elements such as immediate increases in Medicaid discounts.

As earnings season continues, we’ll track what pharma and biotech companies are saying about the near-term impact of legislation on its sales and earnings. Johnson & Johnson recently predicted the pharma industry would lose about $4 billion in 2010 sales and $11 billion in 2011 sales due to the new law.

Here’s what we know so far about the impact of health care legislation:

• Amgen [#msg-49315224] is projecting 2010 sales will be reduced by between $200 million and $250 million.

• Abbott cut its 2010 earnings outlook to a range of $4.13 to $4.18 a share from its earlier outlook of $4.20 to $4.25 a share. Revenue will be down an estimated $230 million in 2010 and an incremental $200 million in 2011.

• Gilead lowered its 2010 net product sales projection to a range of $7.4 billion to $7.5 billion, down from its previous $7.6 billion to $7.7 billion estimate.

• Johnson & Johnson sees 2010 earnings reduced by a nickel, to a range of $4.80 to $4.90 a share excluding certain costs. Health-care legislation will also pare revenue by between $400 million and $500 million.

• Eli Lilly [#msg-49185651] cut its 2010 earnings estimate to a range of $4.35 to $4.50 a share from a previous estimate of $4.65 to $4.85 a share. (Excluding one-time items, earnings are expected to be $4.40 to $4.55 a share.) It said revenue would be reduced by between $350 million and $400 million, and 2011 revenue by $600 million to $700 million.‹