Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[James T Kirk]

The "three cycles" is not written in stone mind you, but the hand waving rationale is that the first cycle brings valuation don still above the norm, the second brings it don to the norm and the third creates those rare uncommon values well under the norm.

What is your precedent for this three cycle thing? The seventies had major lows in 69/70 73/74 and 1982. The 1974 lows were probably the cheapest valuations. Wouldn't that be the second bottom of the cycle? Though the third bottom was good too.

One could make a case of the bear starting after 1966, which would make the 1974 bottom the third and the 1982 the fourth.

Other periods of extreme undervauation were 1932 and the late 1940's. Neither seemed to have a three cycle phenomenon.